It’s all but an elimination game in Euroleague Basketball on Thursday as Zalgiris Kaunas host Olimpia Milano
The race for the last spot in the play-ins is as tight as it gets. Who will make it to the postseason of Euroleague Basketball when Zalgiris Kaunas host Olimpia Milano?
Key details
Who: Zalgiris Kaunas (13-18) vs Olimpia Milano (14-17)
Where: Zalgirio Arena
When: Thursday 28 March at 19.00 CET/18.00 UK & Ireland/13.00 EST
Last time out
Zalgiris Kaunas went two for two in the double round last week. Their performances against Virtus Bologna and Baskonia kept their Euroleague Basketball hopes alive. In a situation where Zalgiris effectively must win out, they are taking care of business.
Olimpia Milano also went 2-0 in the double week, which was enough to move them above Partizan into 10th on tiebreakers. Still, the Italian club can’t afford to get comfortable despite victories away to Monaco and over Fenerbahce at home.
Key battles
Keenan Evans has been the undoubted star for Zalgiris Kaunas throughout this season. Olimpia Milano really have to work on limiting his impact in this battle. They will also need to be wary of Edgaras Ulanovas. The Lithuanian veteran has stepped up in recent outings. He also has a habit of coming good late in the season.
On the Olimpia Milano side, talent has never been the debate. Nikola Mirotic, Shavon Shields, and Nic Melli are all top tier performers. What’s been missing is chemistry and everyone being healthy at the same time. The Italians look to finally have both late in the season. That will be a problem for Zalgiris Kaunas.
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Need to know
This race is tight. A single game separates six clubs in the battle for the 10th and final spot in the play-ins. On paper, Baskonia could still be caught for 9th but they are extremely unlikely to fall out of the postseason spots.
With Zalgiris Kaunas facing playoff bound AS Monaco and Real Madrid in their final two games, the pressure is well and truly one. Olimpia Milano theoretically have it easier against Virtus Bologna and Maccabi Tel Aviv, with both sides safely into the knockout stagtes of Euroleague Basketball.
Still, with plenty of other contenders all around them, all eyes will be on what happens in Kaunas.
What the bookies think
The action on betting exchanges is shockingly light for this game so far. For me, it’s the undoubted Euroleague Basketball game of the day for bettors. Zalgiris Kaunas are 4/5 favourites while Olimpia Milano are 5/4.
That’s basically a pick’em. The spread doesn’t exactly offer much excitement either. That said, Zalgiris are available at -3.5 which isn’t shabby considering the outright. It’s essentially home court plus half a point.
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What we think
It will be loud in Kaunas. The home fans know that this is about as must-win a game as it gets. Lose this and the mountain to climb looks too high. That is going to cause tension and, I think, make matters somewhat low scoring in the early going. It might well be the second half before both teams find their rhythm.
Logic and reason are sending me one way. History and the way things tend to happen are sending me in the opposite direction.
The prediction
Olimipia Milano should win this. They have all the pieces where they need them to be. There is also a clear quality advantage. I just can’t get the way things tend to go in Euroleague Basketball out of my head. This game screams of one of those wild Kaunas magic ones with a lot of weird stuff. I’m taking Zalgiris Kaunas straight up.
Pick: Zalgiris at 4/5 .
The post Preview: Zalgiris Kaunas vs Olimpia Milano – Euroleague Round 32 appeared first on BallinEurope.
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