On estimated volume of 1.4 million units, May new vehicle
sales are expected to be up moderately from both the year-ago and
month-prior result, but market seems devoid of any sustained
momentum.
S&P Global Mobility projects new US light vehicle sales
volume in May 2024 to reach 1.4 million units. This unadjusted
volume total would be up approximately 3% from the year-ago total,
and up 7% from the April 2024 result.
The estimated May sales total would translate to a sales pace of
15.6 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR). When
viewed on a three-month moving average basis, the month SAAR metric
has been trending sideways since the third quarter of 2023.
“Given the auto consumer affordability headwinds of vehicle
prices remaining high, mixed with high interest rates, there's been
limited momentum in regard to the pace of auto-sales levels over
the past three quarters,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility. “While incentives and inventory levels
— two potential forces to combat some of the new vehicle
affordability concerns — have continued to develop over the
same time frame, a potentially constrained consumer continues to
dictate monthly sales levels, with downside risks to rest-of-year
sales volumes beginning to emerge.”
Light vehicle production volume continues to churn, hinting at
sustained growth for inventories and incentives moving through the
rest of 2024. However, like sales, growth levels for inventories
are also settling.
According to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global
Mobility, “Analysis of April
retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that inventory
is still on the rise, with electric vehicle (EV) inventory growing
faster than the overall industry. Available retail advertised
inventory at the end of April rose to 2.77 million vehicles, up
1.3% compared to March and 57% over last April. This is the 11th
consecutive month of increases (22 of the last 24 months have grown
vs. the prior month), but the rate of increase is the lowest since
July 2023.”
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer-term
S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the
immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated.
May BEV share is expected to reach 7.6%, similar to the
month-prior reading and an advancement from the Q1 2024 results.
BEV share is expected to advance over the next several periods
though, pending the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet
Equinox EV, Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for roll
outs over the next few months, followed by new BEVs such as the
Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the
second half of 2024.
Learn more about the Light Vehicle Sales Forecast.
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