December 2024 Light Vehicle Production
Forecast
Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals,
registration data, and sales data to provide the most up-to-date,
short-term production forecast available.
Here's a close look at global production data by region and our
updated December 2024 production forecast.
Top Takeaways for the Month
As 2024 ends, the auto industry faces ongoing challenges with
mixed demand dynamics and inventory management. The forecast now
includes the assumption that the incoming Trump administration will
increase tariffs to 10% for all countries and 30% for
China-specific imports, with exemptions for Canada and Mexico under
the USMCA. Expected revisions to US emissions requirements will
likely reduce BEV volumes and alter electrification mix. The
updated forecast shows near-term upgrades but material downgrades
for 2025 and 2026 due to tariff impacts and market conditions.
Regional Highlights:
Europe: Europe's light vehicle production
outlook increased by 41,000 units for 2024 but was reduced by
261,000 units for 2025 and 2026. The primary driver for the
forecast revision is new tariff assumptions, particularly affecting
premium vehicles.
Greater China: China's light vehicle production
outlook increased by 150,000 units for 2024 but was reduced by
162,000 units for 2025 and 340,000 units for 2026. China saw strong
growth in the new-energy vehicle (NEV) market, with a 53% market
share in November 2024. However, economic uncertainties lead to
downward revisions for future years.
Japan/Korea: Japan's production outlook was
downgraded by 109,000 units for 2025 and 30,000 units for 2026 due
to stagnant exports and weak domestic demand. South Korea's
production forecast was reduced by 18,000 units for 2024, with
further reductions for 2025 and 2026 due to expected tariff
impacts.
North America: North America's light vehicle
production outlook increased by 23,000 units for 2024 but was
reduced by 173,000 units for 2025 and 238,000 units for 2026. Total
production is expected to hit 15.5 million units for 2024, but
longer-term forecasts are more pessimistic due to inventory
management challenges.
South America: South America's light vehicle
production outlook increased by 43,000 units for 2024 and 12,000
units for 2025 but was reduced by 23,000 units for 2026. While
local production is supported by strong demand in Brazil, future
tariff impacts may lead to lower economic growth.
South Asia: South Asia's light vehicle
production outlook increased by 50,000 units for 2024 and 1,000
units for 2025, but was reduced by 115,000 units for 2026. Strong
production in Vietnam and Malaysia supports the near-term outlook,
while concerns over economic growth affect future projections.
Download a free light vehicle production forecast sample
here.
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