Top overall high school basketball recruit Cooper Flagg has reportedly narrowed his decision down to UConn and Duke.
Huskies fans are understandably excited about this development, but what if he doesn’t choose UConn?
It’s a thought fans don’t even want in their heads right now, and that’s understandable– why even put that energy out there in the universe? But what if we told you that capturing Flagg, a potential future No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft and a prospect who’s drawn comparisons to Victor Wembanyama— wouldn’t necessarily help UConn’s chances of winning a title?
Think of this article like a Michael Scott “sad” box, from the episode of ‘The Office’ where he’s preparing himself for the news that Holly Flax got engaged. This is something to pull out if the sharp-shooting, skilled, 6-8 freak of nature chooses to play for Duke, which he’s called his ‘dream school,’ instead of the Huskies.
A look back at every No. 1 overall high school recruit since 2006 shows that only two of those players — Anthony Davis at Kentucky in 2012 and Jahlil Okafor at Duke in 2015 — won national championships in their lone season in school.
Here’s the list:
2006: Greg Oden, Ohio State: Lost in 2007 National Championship Game
2007: Kevin Love, UCLA: Lost in 2008 National Semifinals
2008: Samardo Samuels, Louisville: Lost in 2009 Elite Eight
2009: Avery Bradley, Texas: Lost in 2010 First Round
2010: Harrison Barnes, North Carolina: Lost in 2011 Elite Eight
2011: Anthony Davis, Kentucky: Won 2012 national championship
2012: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky: Lost in 2013 NIT First Round
2013: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas: Lost in 2014 Second Round
2014: Jahlil Okafor, Duke: Won 2015 national championship
2015: Ben Simmons, LSU: Missed 2016 NCAA Tournament, did not play postseason
2016: Harry Giles, Duke: Lost in 2017 Second Round
2017: Marvin Bagley III, Duke: Lost in 2018 Elite Eight
2018: Zion Williamson, Duke: Lost in 2019 Elite Eight
2019: Cole Anthony, North Carolina: Finished 14-19
2020: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State: Lost in 2021 Second Round
2021: Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga: Lost in 2022 Sweet 16
2022: Dereck Lively, Duke: Lost in 2023 Second Round
It’s not just the No. 1 recruits who failed to bring home the ultimate prize, either. Since 2007, a whole host of ‘generational’ players have hit campus, such as Kevin Durant at Texas in 2007, O.J. Mayo at USC in 2008, DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall at Kentucky in 2010, Kyrie Irving at Duke in 2011, Jayson Tatum at Duke and Lonzo Ball at UCLA in 2017, and Duke’s three-headed monster of Williamson, Barrett and Cam Reddish in 2019. None of them won the title. In fact, none of them even reached the Final Four.
Of course, if they had stayed in school longer, might they have taken home the hardware? Sure, that’s likely in many cases. But in today’s game where the best players only spend one season in college, top recruits come with the expectation that they’ll have their teams competing for a championship right away.
As for the teams that actually did win it all? Here’s a look at their highest-rated freshman recruit in ESPN’s recruiting rankings from those years:
2007: Florida (Marreese Speights, 51st)
2008: Kansas (Cole Aldrich, 27th)
2009: North Carolina (Ed Davis, 9th)
2010: Duke (Ryan Kelly, 16th)
2011: UConn (Jeremy Lamb, 76th)
2012: Kentucky (Davis, 1st)
2013: Louisville (vacated by NCAA, Montrezl Harrell, 90th)
2014: UConn (Kentan Facey, 98th)
2015: Duke (Okafor, 1st)
2016: Villanova (Jalen Brunson, 16th)
2017: North Carolina (Tony Bradley, 17th)
2018: Villanova (Omari Spellman, 18th)
2019: Virginia (No freshmen ranked in top 100)
2020: No tournament (COVID-19 pandemic)
2021: Baylor (LJ Cryer, 83rd)
2022: Kansas (Zach Clemence, 43rd)
2023: UConn (Donovan Clingan, 56th)
As you can see, it’s been veteran teams with the right mix of talent, chemistry and experience who have taken home college basketball’s ultimate prize– not teams loaded with one-and-dones. Nobody knows that better than UConn fans (and maybe John Calipari), especially the ones who just watched the Huskies boatrace the rest of the field in 2023.
If Flagg does decide to spend his lone collegiate season in Storrs, it would be a major recruiting coup for Dan Hurley. It would prove that the Huskies are all the way back among the sport’s elite– not just on the court but on the recruiting trail and in the hearts and minds of players around the country. It would certainly be fun for fans, who would be treated to a season of rooting for one of the biggest phenoms to grace college basketball in years. And if he lived up to the tremendous hype and ended up going No. 1 overall in the draft? Well, he’d be the first Husky ever to do that, too.
But if he doesn’t? Just keep this bookmarked in your browser or hanging on your fridge. And don’t cancel any Final Four plans.
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