Drafting rookies in fantasy basketball can be a lot like the fishing game at carnivals. The unknown of what’s going to happen is kinda fun and whimsical, you know you’re going to walk away with some sort of “prize,” but whatever rinky-dink toy or stuffed animal you get probably will depreciate in your mind faster than a new car off the lot.
Long before I was the expert Razzball analyst you’re reading now [“psshh above-average amateur at best”; “Shut up voice in my head, too early for you!”] I never trusted rookies much. The more I read, it was nice to learn this was the correct take to have in this realm.
Rookies traditionally underwhelm because they’re, well, rookies [DUH!]. They struggle with efficiency, which doubles in leagues counting turnovers, and lack the experience and game knowledge at the NBA pace that leads to an extra rebound here or assist there, or what have you that creates a reliable fantasy asset.
Last season was a classic example. There was a Rookie of the Year in Paolo Banchero putting up headline-earning stats, yet finished ranked 211 per game in 9-cat. There were studs who started hot and heavy like Benedict Mathurin but never improved on average-to-weak counting stats. Per usual, the big guys fared the best, with a fun breakout campaign by Walker Kessler (57) and some usable players at the end of the season in guys like Mark Williams (128), Jalen Duren (135) and Jabari Smith Jr. (144) – sniffing a double-double with a block can go a long way for guys on rebuilding teams. And then we had the surprise breakout of an older, more seasoned rookie in Jalen Williams, who finished ranked 73 in 9-cat, and was a top 20 player in the last two months of the season.
As the headline attempts to wittingly suggest, no matter how good the rookie, the general rule is to expect inconsistent fantasy production day-in and day-out. There will be some exciting bit lines and inevitable mistake-laden stinkers.
So let’s take a look at some of the class of 2023-24, as I’ve compiled a list of sure-fire analysis of steady that I’m 100% certain of….
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