Chiefs vs 49ers Super Bowl Predictions, Odds & Betting Picks – originally posted on Sportslens.com
The upcoming Super Bowl showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas has the potential to be the most-watched championship game in history. Ahead of the action – we have our predictions and best picks for the game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Picks
- Kansas City Chiefs money line (+105)
- Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-135)
- Justin Watson over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions
The Super Bowl is just around the corner after yet another superb year of action in the NFL. Searching for their third championship ring since 2020, the Kansas City Chiefs will take on the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas – who will look to reverse the form from Super Bowl LIV.
Since the markets opened after the Conference Championship games finished, we’ve seen plenty of movement from the best NFL sportsbooks. The 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites before the line closed to one, and it has since shifted to 1.5 in favor of San Francisco.
The 2024 renewal of the Super Bowl sees a rematch from the championship game four years ago in Miami, Florida – where Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won their first title since 1970 against the 49ers, winning 31-20 at the Hard Rock Stadium.
Kansas City are looking to become the first side since Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in the mid-2000s to win back-to-back Super Bowl rings after triumph against the Philadelphia Eagles in Arizona last year, which if successful could be deemed the most impressive ring of the dynasty.
After finishing as the AFC’s No. 3 seed, the Chiefs faced a very different path to what they were used to in the postseason. After dispatching of the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card round, it meant Kansas City would need to win two straight games on the road to reach Super Bowl LVIII.
Mahomes had never played on the road in the playoffs before, with his only appearances coming at Arrowhead or a neutral site for the Super Bowl. Despite this, he led the Chiefs to a Divisional round upset against the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills – before going one better to send the NFL’s best record packing in the form of the Baltimore Ravens.
The star quarterback has more than enough weapons to get the job done in Vegas. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are two of the best receiving targets in the league, whilst Isiah Pacheco is one of the most aggressive and powerful running backs in the game – all supported by a top-five defense.
On paper, the San Francisco 49ers probably have a better looking roster but they don’t have the experience at this level quite like the Chiefs do. They got the job done against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions but both performances included some shaky moments where it could’ve ended in catastrophe.
Kansas City have looked the more stable outfit throughout the postseason and they live for these moments. They’ve been there and done it on multiple occasions, so for that reason the Chiefs take the edge in this matchup for us.
Chiefs vs 49ers score prediction: Chiefs 21-18 49ers
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Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Picks Explained
Pick 1: Kansas City Chiefs money line (+105 with BetOnline)
During the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs and 49ers have met three occasions. Twice in the regular season and once in the postseason, which have resulted in three Kansas City wins.
I’d go as far to say that in terms of opponent difficulty, the Philadelphia Eagles were a harder match-up than the 49ers for Kansas City. The Chiefs roster wasn’t as good as it is this time around and they still got the job done.
Mahomes continues to prove himself as one of the greatest this game has ever seen time and time again, so it feels wrong to go against him. When you do, it usually doesn’t end terribly well.
It’s been a historically impressive playoff run from the Chiefs which has taken undoubtedly the hardest route of Mahomes’ career to get to this point. Odds-against for the Chiefs is simply too good not to take.
Pick 2: Patrick Mahomes over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-135 with BetOnline)
In 17 career playoff outings, Mahomes has totalled 39 passing touchdowns – an average of 2.3 per game. The Super Bowl sees Kansas City go up against the fifth-best run defense in the league, so expect Andy Reid to target the end zone through the air in Vegas.
The 49ers don’t have a bad pass defense by any means (13th-best, 215.6 yards per game) but with Mahomes’ passing ability and receivers in front of him like Kelce and Rice alongside the dual-threat backs of Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, over 1.5 passing touchdowns is our play here.
He’s only hit this total once in the current postseason so far so odds of -135 are welcomed. The over hit 10/19 times this season on this prop and it looks worth attacking again.
Pick 3: Justin Watson over 16.5 receiving yards (-110 with BetOnline)
With the increased attention that Kelce and Rice are likely to draw following an impressive postseason from both, space opens up for Justin Watson to grab himself a couple of catches in the open field.
The 28-year-old wideout caught two passes for 20 yards in the Wild Card round and one for 16 yards in the AFC Championship victory in Baltimore. The over has hit in six of his last ten games on this prop and 11/18 times this season.
He won’t play a huge role but as we saw in last year’s Super Bowl, fringe players can push you over the line – like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Watson helped to do against the Eagles.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs: +105| San Francisco 49ers: =125
- Point Spread: Chiefs (+1.5) -110 | 49ers (-1.5) -110
- Total Points: Over 47.5 -110 | Under 47.5 -110
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