US Commercial Vehicle Market Grew 14 percent in 2023, according
to S&P Global Mobility
Fueled by the resurgence of the rental and leasing industry,
commercial vehicle registrations (GVW 1-8) rose 14% in 2023
compared to 2022, with more than 1.6 million commercial vehicles
registered in 2023, according to the latest analysis of new
commercial vehicle registration data from S&P Global Mobility.
US commercial registrations are also approaching pre-pandemic
levels, as 2023 was just 196,000 units shy of 2019
registrations.
US fleet industry trends in 2023
The lease/rental industry was the fastest-growing vocation in
2023. Some of the largest fleets experienced 40-60% decreases in
new registrations during the pandemic and have since recovered to
registration levels not seen since 2019. Class 2 saw a 21% increase
in registrations due to continued growth in construction and
last-mile delivery vehicles, with increases in pickup and cargo van
registrations.
Class 1 provided the only decrease in 2023, which is attributed
to almost all cargo vans now being registered as class 2
vehicles.
Alternative Fuel Vehicles Starting to Take
Hold
Alternative fuel vehicles, electric and hybrid powertrains are
popular options for light-duty commercial vehicles while compressed
natural gas (CNG) and electric are becoming popular alternative
options for heavy-duty commercial vehicles. Electric cargo vans
continue to trend in last-mile delivery applications, especially
with fleets such as Amazon, Walmart, Penske, and FedEx. There were
more than 14,000 EV cargo vans registered in 2023, according to the
analysis, led by substantial growth from Rivian. In addition,
hybrid pickup trucks are becoming a popular alternative to EV
pickups in fleet applications due to price and availability. The
Ford Maverick continues to show substantial growth for fleets,
especially in the construction industry. In addition, electric
pickup launches expected from Chevrolet and Ram should contribute
to the EV and electrified vehicle sales boom.
Compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric fuels in heavy-duty
vehicles (GVW 6-8) accounted for 6,800 registrations in 2023. CNG
is becoming a popular option for the sanitation and refuse
industry, with options from Peterbilt, Autocar, and Mack. General
freight short-haul tractor trucks have been the primary adopters of
EV for heavy-duty with launches from Freightliner, Volvo, BYD,
Orange EV, and Nikola leading the way.
Commercial Vehicle Forecasts Nearly Flat for
2024
For 2024, S&P Global Mobility forecasts sales of class 4-8
commercial vehicles to grow just slightly, with expected gains of
just 0.3% year-over-year (y/y). However, S&P Global Mobility
expects a single-digit percentage climb in Class 4-7 medium-duty
trucks and vans, which will offset an expected y/y slide in demand
for new Class 8 trucks. Class 8 truck tractors alone are expected
to be down by 5-10% y/y, even as straight trucks' demand is
anticipated to remain strong with some growth.
Even as the overall market pauses growth, new registrations of
zero-emissions and alternative fuel vehicles are expected to
accelerate markedly. Demand for natural-gas trucks and buses in
Class 4-8 is projected to repeat 2023 volumes, after a jump
compared to 2022. Additionally, US demand for electric trucks and
buses is forecast to more than double in 2024, as OEMs position to
meet CARB state requirements and early adopter fleets continue to
onboard the new technology. New registrations of hydrogen-powered
trucks and buses are to rise even faster, albeit from a much lower
2023 base in unit terms.
LEARN MORE ABOUT COMMERCIAL VEHICLE
INSIGHTS AND INTELLIGENCE
THE COMMERCIAL VEHICLE FLEET
ACCELERATES TOWARD ZEV ADOPTION
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE FORECAST: MDHD
TRUCK MARKET COASTS THROUGH 2024
LEARN MORE ABOUT MEDIUM & HEAVY
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE INDUSTRY FORECAST
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