We expect that auto sales in February should recover mildly from
the January 2024 result, but sustained momentum seems tough to come
by, given the current purchase environment facing auto consumers,”
said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“While pricing, inventory, and incentive trends are seemingly
moving in the correct directions, respectively, to promote new
vehicle sales growth, high-interest rates, and uncertain economic
conditions continue to push against any consistent upshift for
demand levels.”
The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2024 reflects
sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales.
We expect production levels to continue to develop, especially
early in the year as some automakers look to continue to restock in
the wake of production shutdowns late in 2023 and decent December
2023 sales volume. The advancing production levels set the stage
for incentives and inventory to continue to develop, potentially
enticing new vehicle buyers who remain on the sidelines due to
higher interest rates. S&P Global Mobility projects a
calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 15.9 million
units, a 3% increase from the 2023 tally.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer-term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. February BEV share is
expected to reach 8.0%, similar to the month prior reading as
automakers, dealers, and consumers continue to digest the changes
to IRA Federal tax credits to begin the new year. BEV share is
expected to advance over the next several periods, pending the
rollouts of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda
Prologue, and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for market introductions
over the first half of 2024.
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