While expected to be below the March 2024 volume total, new
light vehicle sales volume in April should sustain some of the
spring selling momentum.
Key Takeaways:
- April US auto sales expected to reach 1.34 million units.
- Advertised retail inventory in April is 65% higher compared to
last year. - BEV share is expected to reach 7%, similar to March.
- Calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume projected to hit
16.0 million units, a 3% increase from 2023.
S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales volume
in April 2024 to reach 1.34 million units. While this unadjusted
volume total would be a drop from both the month prior (down 7%)
and year-ago (down 2%) levels, two fewer selling days than March
2024 and one less than April 2023 more than account for any
potential declines. This volume would translate to an estimated
sales pace of 16.0 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate:
SAAR), just the third time in the past 24 months the metric has
reached this level.
“With an auto sales environment currently defined by the mixed
signals of advancing inventory and incentives, together with
affordability concerns from high interest rates and still-high
vehicle prices, the anticipated April result reflects that
consumers are still in the market for a new vehicle,” said Chris
Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
Retail-advertised inventory continues its steady rise, and
stands now at 2.97 million units, an increase of 65% vs. last year.
While most dealer inventory comprises 2024 and some 2025 model year
vehicles, pockets of older inventory remain.
“Consumers in the market for a new vehicle are increasingly able
to find opportunities for discounts coming from the availability of
more vehicles in dealer inventory,” said Matt Trommer, associate
director at S&P Global Mobility.
The supply side of the auto equation is continuing to show signs
of advancement, hinting at sustained growth for inventories and
incentives moving through 2024. According to Joe Langley, associate
director at S&P Global Mobility, “The outlook for North
American light vehicle production for 2024 was revised higher by
1.5% to 16.0 million units on demand resilience and more
importantly on stronger production results, indicating minimized
impact of supply chain issues.”
“Advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and
inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle
buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates,”
said Hopson. “It will be a bumpy ride and month-to-month sales
volatility is likely. S&P Global Mobility projects
calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 16.0 million
units, a 3% increase from 2023.”
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. April BEV share is
expected to reach 7%, similar to March, as Telsa volumes are likely
to be reflective the first quarter levels. BEV share is expected to
advance over the next several periods though, supported by the
pending the launches of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV,
Honda Prologue and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for market
introductions over the first half of 2024, as well as advancing
Tesla Model 3 and Cybertruck sales.
Learn More: S&P Light Vehicle
Sales Forecast
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