To develop more efficient e-motors, OEMs and suppliers
must innovate, balance design control with outsourcing, and manage
supply chain risks.
The electric motor (e-motor) market is forecasted to increase
rapidly over the next decade. More efficient electric propulsion
technologies like the eAxle and its components drive this
growth.
With major markets like India aiming to electrify its
transportation, how will original equipment manufacturers (OEMs)
balance design and technology needs to sustainably source and
produce eAxles at scale?
Innovation in motor design and power
The eAxle is a compact, integrated assembly that combines the
motor, power electronics, and transmission essential to an electric
vehicle's (EV) infrastructure. S&P Global Mobility estimates
over 122 million e-motors will be produced by 2035, with over 70%
of them using eAxles, driven by advancements in power density and
efficiency.
In particular, e-motor designers focus on achieving higher
specific power, which measures the power output per unit of weight.
High specific power gives greater power output in a lighter and
smaller motor. This phenomenon translates to improved energy
efficiency, more extended range, and better overall system
performance for an EV.
Power trends show an average increase in specific power by 35%
from one generation to another. This trend is the result of
innovative strategies by suppliers like Bosch, Valeo, and others
that either focus on augmenting power while maintaining weight,
reducing weight while keeping power constant, or ideally achieving
gains in both power and weight simultaneously. It will be incumbent
upon manufacturers to understand the trade-offs and choose the
eAxle configuration for their specific use case.
System designers have also made progress in improving motor
speed. S&P Global Mobility forecasts that 19% of the Indian
market demand by 2035 will be for motors capable of operating at
speeds above the 20,000 RPM limit. Manufacturers prioritize
high-performance winding technologies like hairpin winding to
achieve more thermally efficient and power-dense motors capable of
maintaining these higher speeds.
Winding technology, which involves arranging coils within the
motor, is a crucial factor in optimizing motor performance,
efficiency, and power density. A hairpin winding design is
preferred as it minimizes losses and maximizes fill factor – the
ratio of the amount of copper wire used in the winding to the total
available space within the stator.
Motor efficiency trends
Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs) have emerged as the
industry standard among the different motor types due to their
superior efficiency and power density. These attributes make them
highly suitable for electric vehicles where performance and range
are critical. However, their reliance on rare earth materials,
necessary for their strong magnetic fields, poses cost and ethical
sourcing challenges.
The industry is exploring alternatives to PMSMs, such as
induction and externally excited motors, which do not require rare
earth elements but may have varying weight, power, and efficiency
trade-offs. For instance, Tesla is developing a rare earth-free
magnet that targets lower-cost vehicles. Other OEMs, such as GM and
Stellantis, also invest in this area.
The global shift towards sustainability is also influencing the
production of motors. While PMSMs will continue to dominate the
market, there is a noticeable trend towards non-magnet-based
motors, which are forecasted to constitute 23% of the global market
by 2035. OEMs are keen to reduce dependency on neodymium, a rare
earth element used in permanent magnets, which frequently
fluctuates in availability and price. By decreasing the use of
neodymium in motors, manufacturers can reduce costs and enhance
sustainability.
Major automotive players are investing in recycling and
sustainable materials to reduce their products' environmental
impact further. Copper is a critical material in motor construction
and assembly. With advancements in wire technology, such as the
transition from round to rectangular wires, manufacturers optimize
copper utilization, leading to better efficiency and reduced
material use.
Mainland China is the leading global supplier of e-motors due to
its abundant reserves of rare earth elements. However, investments
in material partnerships are reshaping the EV motor production
landscape. For example, BMW iVentures' investment in rare earth
element recycling and Niron Magnetics' development funding for
clean earth magnets are just some of the efforts to innovate and
secure supply chains in the EV sector. As major OEMs look to
diversify supply away from mainland China, India stands to gain.
Nidec and ZF have invested in new plants in Karnataka and Orgadam
to increase production.
As EV adoption grows, the eAxle in-house production levels
increasingly indicate OEMs' strategy to integrate design and
control production. By 2030, 68% of eAxles will result from
in-house OEM system integration.
This transition, however, is not devoid of challenges. With
rising volumes, OEMs must diversify the supply chain and
potentially rely on outsourcing for specific production processes.
By so doing, OEMs can then focus on system integration while
leveraging the expertise of specialized suppliers.
The regional dynamics of eAxle production can vary depending on
technological capabilities and supply chain constraints. Equity
alliances are more favored in regions like Japan and Korea, while
North America prioritizes in-house production. By 2030, the
in-house production of systems that include motor and rotor or
stator components will decline to 34%, marking a strategic reliance
on supply chain partnerships to optimize production efficiency and
cost.
As the EV market matures, efficiency is the central theme, not
just in the electric motors but across the entire supply chain,
from raw materials to final assembly. It will take innovation,
strategic material sourcing, and production efficiency from
automakers, suppliers, and OEMs to drive the future of electric
mobility.
This article is part of a series featuring
highlights from S&P Global Mobility's 2024 Solutions Webinar
Series. The E-Motor Technology and Supply Chain Evolution webinar
occurred on April 16, 2024.
Register for upcoming webinar
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