If you travel to mainland China 10 years from now, you will see
more commercial autonomous vehicles operating on public roads than
anywhere else in the world. That's an estimate based on the
mainland Chinese government's focus to build a regulatory and
economic environment for companies developing these cutting-edge
technologies to survive and thrive.
The current enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles in mainland China
is quite different from Europe and North America, where developers
of such vehicles are contending with cost cuts, consumer apathy and calls for more regulation.
For one, investment in smart infrastructure is a key focus area of
the mainland Chinese government, both at the local and federal
levels. From pilot projects to construct smart connected roads to
issuing permits for the public testing autonomous driving
technologies, mainland China is moving faster than many other
countries on policy and investments.
What's the latest? Mainland China's capital city recently released the “Beijing Autonomous Driving
Vehicle Regulations” aimed at establishing a comprehensive
framework for the management, innovation and development of
autonomous vehicles. The proposed regulation, the biggest
initiative by the city since it first allowed road tests of
autonomous vehicles in 2019, aspires to spark technological
breakthroughs in core areas, including sensors, semiconductors, and
software.
Mainland China's regulatory approach involves a combination of
national standards and government directives designed to accelerate
the development and deployment of autonomous vehicles. The Ministry
of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other agencies
have issued several standards, such as “Guidelines on Establishing
National Standards System of Telematics Industry” and
“Administrative Provisions on Road Testing of Intelligent Connected
Vehicles” to create a supportive environment for testing and
commercializing autonomous vehicles across various cities, enabling
rapid progress and extensive data collection.
Technology adoption trends
Mainland China is already a leader in the Level 2+ segment,
which is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of 39% by 2030. This growth is fueled by the increasing adoption of
advanced sensor hardware and application software in vehicles, as
well as improvements in electric/electronic (E/E) architectures and
over-the-air updates.
The mainland Chinese government's approval of Tesla's Full
Self-Driving (FSD) feature highlights a strong willingness to
elevate autonomous vehicle technology. Tesla's entry into the
mainland Chinese market with its FSD feature, developed in
collaboration with Baidu for mapping, will intensify competition
among domestic and international players. This competitive pressure
is likely to spur further innovation and expansion in the
sector.
Several mainland Chinese companies have announced plans to roll
out Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) systems across multiple cities.
NOA systems are similar to Tesla's FSD, offering advanced
driver-assistance capabilities such as autonomous stopping,
steering, and lane-changing in urban environments. However, these
systems still require human drivers to monitor and take control
when necessary, classifying them as Level 2+ advanced driver
assistance systems (ADAS).
By the end of this decade, Greater China is expected to emerge
as the largest market for Level 3 and Level 4 vehicles as well.
According to S&P Global Mobility, Greater China would likely
account for more than 60% of global Level 3 vehicle output by 2030,
followed by Europe (nearly 24%) and North America (nearly 13%). For
global Level 4 vehicle output, Greater China's share could reach
over 70% by 2030 followed by North America (16%) and Europe
(11%).
Mainland China still faces challenges related to regulatory
barriers such as clear guidelines and standards, data collection
and privacy, and urban complexity and infrastructure development.
However, its stronger push toward autonomous driving, supported by
substantial government initiatives, investments, and regulatory
frameworks, bode well for the future of autonomous vehicle industry
in the country.
Authored by: Rohan Hazarika, Senior Research
Analyst, Supply Chain & Technology, S&P Global Mobility
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