Given the shift of delayed new vehicle purchases which stemmed
from the dealer management software cyberattack, the pace of sales
in July is expected to realize a notable boost.
S&P Global Mobility projects US sales volume for new light
vehicle sales in July 2024 will reach 1.32 million units, up
approximately 1% year over year. This volume would translate to an
estimated sales pace of 16.4 million units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate: SAAR), which would be the highest monthly mark for
this metric since May 2021.
“As a result of delayed transactions from the June auto dealer
cyberattacks, even with one less selling day than June 2024, auto
sales volume in July is expected to essentially match the
month-prior result,” said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“When averaged together, the two-month SAAR level of June and
July would be very similar to the respective readings of April
(15.8M) and May (15.9M), which were progressing mildly as rising
inventory and incentive levels continue to help alleviate some new
vehicle affordability pinch points,” he added. “Mixed signals
regarding the outlook for the second half of the year remain
entrenched though, as new vehicle affordability concerns remain
prevalent, and inventories are not expected to advance as strongly
as they have done over the past 12 months.”
On the supply side of the equation, with pockets of automakers
reaching inventory saturation points given the current pace of
sales, there are expected to be some interesting dynamics in the
short-term production outlook. “Some automakers are struggling to
balance their sales, production, inventory and incentive targets as
the market returns to more normal dynamics than what occurred from
2020-2023,” said
Joe Langley, associate director at S&P Global Mobility.
“Our North American light vehicle production outlook for the
remainder of this year has been scaled back as automakers attempt
to manage these factors.”
According to
Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility,
“Analysis of June retail advertised inventory data in the US finds
that inventory continues to rise. Available retail advertised
inventory at the end of June continued to grow, up 1.8% compared to
May and 57% over last June.”
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. July BEV share is
expected to reach 7.8%, similar to the month prior reading and
continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results. BEV share is
expected to progress over the next several months, assisted by the
the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and
Honda Prologue, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S
and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of
2024.
Figure 2: US Battery Electric Vehicle Sales
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