Over the past eight months, the rate of EV new registration
growth in the US has plateaued and even pulled back month over
month — leading to stories about a slowdown in EV adoption.
But this trend must be viewed in the broader context of how new
EVs are transforming the makeup of vehicles in use today.
As of January 1, 2024, there were over 286 million passenger
cars and light trucks in the United States. At that time,
alternative fuel vehicles (EVs and hybrids) accounted for nearly
12.5 million vehicles in use. This number has been consistently on
the rise and has doubled since the start of 2020.
In our mid-year review of vehicles on the road on July 1, the
overall number had grown by 1.8 million units, to nearly 288
million. Almost 1.6 million (89%) of that growth came from EV and
hybrid vehicles!
A Wholistic View of Vehicles on the Road
The EV sales slowdown and the rising popularity of hybrids are
still a major focus in the news cycle. Yet, on the shift to
alternative propulsions, the impact of time can sometimes be
overlooked. Reporting often focuses on year-over-year changes in
registrations rather than the long view provided by a more
wholistic review of vehicles currently on the road.
By looking at the number of vehicles entering and leaving the
fleet — in addition to new registrations — we can more
effectively measure efforts to grow EV adoption and reduce the
fleet's negative environmental impact.
Measuring Vehicles in Operation
Vehicles tend to have a protracted lifecycle, with the average
age of the population sitting at 12.6 years as of January 2024.
More than 80 million vehicles are over 16 years of age. Within this
context, the real-world impact of new vehicles entering the
population can most clearly be understood.
In a typical year, new registrations account for a 5 – 6%
addition of vehicles in operation. Additionally, 4 – 5% of all
vehicles on the road are retired each year. Various reasons
contribute to vehicles retiring from the population, including end
of life, total-loss collisions, natural disaster and export, among
others. By combining all these factors, we can better understand
the change in total share of vehicles on the road over time.
EV Share of Vehicles on the RoadIs
Growing Over Time
Although EV new registrations have slowed — and hybrid
registrations are growing at a relatively slow pace — the
vehicles-in-use data demonstrates the importance of sustained
growth over time.
Even at current levels, the rate of EV adoption will continue to
reshape the fleet. The new registration pipeline is rich in EV and
hybrid vehicles — while the retirement pipeline is primarily
aged internal combustion vehicles. As a result, the share of
vehicles in use that are more environmentally friendly is
increasing more rapidly. While a net zero future for the vehicle
fleet has been established as an aspirational goal, there are
improvements in efficiency to be enjoyed over time.
Since the start of 2020, the weighted average EPA MPG Combined
for vehicles in use — the standard measurement for overall
fleet efficiency — has increased by nearly 2 MPG, from 23.68 to
25.41. Even in the current moment — where the rate of growth in
adoption of alternative propulsion is slowing — we can still be
confident that we are making progress in improving the
environmental impact of the vehicle fleet.
S&P Global Mobility provides a single global source for
aftermarket insights, enabling automotive professionals to drive
increased parts revenue and reduced cost with a more comprehensive,
accurate, and timely view of vehicles in operation (VIO), parts
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