Each month, we leverage global light vehicle production actuals,
registration data, and sales data to give you the most up-to-date,
short-term production forecast available.
Here's a close look at global production data by region and our
updated August production forecast.
Top Takeaways
The global auto industry continues to wrestle with slowing sales
growth in several key markets and rather high inventories, among
other factors. The production outlook reflects these ongoing
challenges, and our August forecast update includes a mix of both
upgrades and downgrades in the near-term. Regional adjustments
reflect the impact of expanded policy support in China offset by a
focus on inventory management and company-specific adjustments in
North America.
Noteworthy Adjustments
Europe: The outlook for Europe light vehicle
production was increased by 60,000 units and by 31,000 units for
2024 and 2025, respectively. The outlook for Western and Central
Europe, including Turkey, was revised down by 14,000 units. This
was due to somewhat stagnated vehicle demand and supply chain
issues. The broader European market continues to be influenced by
elevated vehicle pricing, lingering high inflation and the ongoing
shift in electrification.
Greater China: The outlook for Greater China
light vehicle production was increased by 227,000 units and reduced
by 354,000 for 2024 and 2025, respectively. In the extreme
near-term, production is supported by a bolstered scrappage
incentive program, which also results in something of a pay-back
effect after 2024. The forecast continues to reflect some negative
impact to production from European tariff actions; however, we
expect export activity to remain quite robust as markets wait for
Chinese localization efforts to more fully ramp-up.
Japan/Korea: Full-year 2024 Japan production
was downgraded modestly by 11,000 units relative to last month's
forecast. The downward revision is primarily associated with
Daihatsu as the company is expected to face production impacts
later this year related to compliance with new regulations. South
Korea production was upgraded to 4.11 million units in 2025 and
3.91 million units in 2026 due to increased demand for the Renault
Arkana.
North America: The outlook for North America
light vehicle production was reduced by 173,000 units and by
102,000 units for 2024 and 2025, respectively. These reductions are
primarily due to inventory-related reductions and production issues
at Toyota. Production at Toyota's Princetown West plant remains
idled due to a recent airbag recall, resulting in a loss of
additional units.
South America: The outlook for South America
light vehicle production was reduced by 2,000 units and by 1,000
units for 2024 and 2025, respectively. In the extreme near-term,
the outlook for the region remains largely in-line with
expectations as stronger production actuals for Brazil offset
lingering weakness in Argentina.
South Asia: The outlook for South Asia light
vehicle production was reduced by 11,000 units and by 56,000 units
for 2024 and 2025, respectively. South Asia's light vehicle
production forecast for 2024 was largely unchanged with the August
update, with only a minor downward adjustment for the ASEAN market
due to stricter auto loan approvals amidst a challenging market
environment. The weakness in ASEAN continues to be primarily
focused on Thailand and Indonesia.
Download a free light vehicle
production forecast sample
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