On a volume estimate of 1.42 million units, US light vehicle
sales in August are expected to be up more than 7% year over year
and grow more than 11% from the month-prior level. This translates
to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million units,
a moderate reading in a market continuing to wait for sales levels
to advance more strongly.
“New vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle
preventing further advances in the pace of auto sales,” said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
“The current environment of still-high interest rates and
slow-to-recede vehicle prices are translating to still-high monthly
payments and little progress for new vehicle demand levels.”
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected
over the remainder of the year—two levers necessary for
affordability issues to ease and sales to progress. But recent
developments reflect some volatility for both metrics.
According to
Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility,
“Analysis of
July retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that
inventory declined compared to month-end June reporting, the first
month-over-month drop since May 2023. Available retail advertised
inventory at the end of July was up 52.5% compared to last year,
but down 2.3% from June 2024.”
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales
remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility
light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, moderate
month-to-month volatility is anticipated. August BEV share is
expected to reach 8.1%, similar to the month-prior reading and
continued advancement from the Q1 2024 results.
BEV share is expected to progress over the next several months,
continuing the upward trend realized since April 2024, assisted by
the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and
Honda Prologue, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S
and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of
2024.
Get a free preview of our Light Vehicle Sales
Forecast.
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