Reinventing the Truck Report
The
Reinventing the Truck Annual Report from S&P Global was
published in late December 2024.
For more than a century, the trucking industry has been the
backbone of global commerce, moving freight that fuels the world's
economic engine.
But disruption is looming, driven by an increased focus on
climate change, stricter regulations and technological innovations
that are set to reshape the industry's future.
The Reinventing the Truck 2024 update explores a
trucking industry in flux
In the
Reinventing the Truck (RTT) 2024 update, S&P Global
Mobility and S&P Global Commodity Insights have again brought
together automotive and energy experts to identify and address
major questions facing the industry.
This 2024 update navigates a trucking industry in flux. Our
scenario-based approach carefully balances growing optimism for
electric vehicles (EVs) against the backdrop of practical and
political challenges.
Trucking plays a crucial role in discussions about energy
transition and climate policy. Although medium and heavy commercial
vehicles (MHCVs) over six tons — including buses and motor
homes — made up only 4% of global vehicle sales in 2023, they
are a major source of on-road CO2 emissions because they
travel many miles, have lower fuel efficiency compared to cars and
remain in use for longer. In 2024, MHCVs are projected to account
for 39% of global road transport liquid fuel demand and 40% of
global road-sector CO2 emissions.
These figures highlight the importance to many policymakers
around the world of decarbonizing this sector to achieve climate
goals. The
RTT 2024 report offers a comprehensive long-term trucking
industry forecast addressing vital questions about the future of
trucking in the key markets of Mainland China, Europe, Japan and
the United States.
Zero-emissions vehicles, regulations and energy
transition costs will influence the trucking industry's next
decade
Each year's RTT study reflects the past 12 months' key
developments and milestones while anticipating emerging trends and
catalysts for change. This year's report is no exception.
Here are some of the main trucking industry projections
explored in the report.
Truck Sales and Market Trends:
- We expect total truck sales in the RTT markets to peak before
the end of this decade. - The next 36 months will be a critical period for industry
zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) goals. - ZEV adoption has been slower than expected in recent months,
which means that through the mid-2030s, the adoption curve for
zero-emission trucks will be steeper compared to past projections,
particularly in Europe and the United States. - In the base-case scenario, OEMs will explore alternatives to
ZEVs to reduce emissions, including improved diesel, natural gas
and different types of hybrids. - We expect significant adoption of hybrid and range extender
electric trucks only in the United States due to California Air and
Resource Board regulations mandating the use of zero or near-zero
emission vehicles.
Regulations and Policy Drivers:
- In Europe and the United States, regulations will be the main
driver of electrified truck adoption over the next decade. - Two important truck regulations adopted in Europe and the
United States in 2024 have affected the RTT 2024 commercial fleet
market forecasts.
Hydrogen and Alternative Energy:
- We have downgraded both mid-term and long-term forecasts for
hydrogen-powered trucks compared to previous trucking industry
forecasts.
Autonomous Trucks:
- The December 2024 RTT report includes a US commercial fleet
forecast for Level 4 autonomous trucks, with volume projections
based on truck freight tonnage by highway lane at the state level.
By 2050, we expect autonomous trucks to transport goods worth
hundreds of billions of dollars.
Environmental Impact and Energy Transition:
- By 2050, the energy transition in the RTT trucking market is
projected to reduce CO2 emissions by 31% to 77% compared
to 2024 levels, under the Inflections and Green Rules Scenarios,
respectively. - In our “inflections” scenario, energy transition costs across
all RTT markets will exceed $50 billion over the next decade. This
transition will be the most transformative period in the history of
the trucking industry.
How clean energy, the political landscape and
regulations will shape the trucking industry in 2025 and
beyond
The RTT report unveils two plausible scenarios of how the future
market landscape will evolve and how clean energy technology will
transform the MHCV fuel mix. The report examines how the 2024 US
election could affect the adoption of zero-emission trucks in the
United States, the options truck OEMs have to meet Europe's new
CO2 reduction regulations and the costs of zero-emission
trucks for different types of work.
It also compares the timeline for adopting electrified trucks in
Mainland China with those in the United States and Europe and
evaluates the energy transition costs for each market.
The deliverable, which includes a 225-slide PDF report along
with two Excel datasets, is now available. Contact us for more
information on the latest Reinventing the Truck report.
Inquire to Purchase: Reinventing the Truck Report
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