{"id":10585,"date":"2023-09-25T09:01:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-25T08:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/autonomous-vehicle-reality-check-widespread-adoption.html"},"modified":"2023-09-25T09:01:00","modified_gmt":"2023-09-25T08:01:00","slug":"autonomous-vehicle-reality-check-widespread-adoption-remains-at-least-a-decade-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2023\/09\/25\/autonomous-vehicle-reality-check-widespread-adoption-remains-at-least-a-decade-away\/","title":{"rendered":"Autonomous Vehicle Reality Check: Widespread Adoption Remains at Least a Decade Away"},"content":{"rendered":"

The era of peak hype has passed, but forecasters still see
\nlong-term adoption in certain segments that benefit from today's
\nrise in automated driving technology<\/em><\/h3>\n

A world of self-driving vehicles and mobility-on-demand is
\nlikely to exist eventually, but for the next decade, widespread
\nimplementation of autonomous technology will not be realized,
\naccording to a new forecast from S&amp;P Global Mobility. The
\nreport reflects findings from robust model-level forecasting that
\nautonomous vehicle expectations have not been fulfilled and still
\nface more headwinds – affording significant opportunity and scale
\nto automated driving implementations in the interim.<\/p>\n

For the next decade, autonomous tech will be limited to two
\nspecific areas: geofenced robotaxis operated by fleets in specific
\nareas, and hands-off systems with various safeguards in personal
\nvehicles that will still require some form of driver
\nengagement.<\/p>\n

The latest forecast from S&amp;P Global Mobility notes that
\nLevel 5 Autonomy – “A vehicle that can go anywhere and do
\neverything a human driver can,” will not be publicly available
\nbefore 2035, “and probably for some time after that,” stated Jeremy
\nCarlson, associate director for the autonomy practice at S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility. “But the outlook for more targeted implementations
\nof the same fundamental technologies, especially in Level 2+ and
\nLevel 3 but also for some forms of Level 4, is more positive and
\nwill certainly happen on a much shorter timeline.”<\/p>\n

This latest outlook from S&amp;P Global Mobility reflects the
\nheadwinds and slower pace of development that both the automotive
\nand tech industries have demonstrated over the past several years.
\nIt paints a stark contrast to the optimism of just five years ago
\nwhen the world was swept up in the promise and excitement of a
\nfuture of self-driving vehicles in Levels 4 and 5. Now, S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility presents a more realistic outlook amid this
\nmoderated pace of progress while also publishing new data on the
\nintersection of autonomy and mobility-as-a-service (MaaS).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\nAutomated – rather than autonomous – driving continues to be the
\nfocus of industry development. Today's broad deployments of Level
\n2+ and Level 3 systems by many automakers in multiple regions will
\nreach at least 31% of new vehicle sales globally by 2035, according
\nto the forecast. Level 2+ and Level 3 allow the driver to be
\nhands-off while supervising, or to disengage entirely in specific
\ndriving scenarios, such as in Super Cruise by General Motors and
\nDrive Pilot by Mercedes-Benz, respectively.<\/p>\n

“There is immense opportunity for automated driving systems in
\nLevel 2+ and Level 3, and they are benefiting from the
\nstandardization of basic safety features which provide a foundation
\nof in-vehicle architecture, sensing, and compute,” Carlson says.
\n“Their functionality also complements driving today rather than
\nfully replacing the driver, making consumer adoption less of a
\nchallenge. The next several years of wider deployment across brands
\nand vehicle platforms will be a boon for automakers selling these
\noptional features as well as suppliers who continue to build scale
\nand a strong foundation for the future.”<\/p>\n

L4 Technology Slow to Develop in Personal Vehicles –
\nMaaS Robo-taxis to Lead the Way<\/strong><\/p>\n

The S&amp;P Global Mobility forecast predicts fewer than 6% of
\nlight vehicles sold in 2035 will have any Level 4 functionality, as
\ndescribed by the SAE J3016 classification. Early Level 4
\nimplementations in personally-owned vehicles offer advanced parking
\nfunctions, often with the support of infrastructure. But many
\ntechnology providers remain focused on the long-term potential of
\nscaling autonomous vehicles in fleets supporting MaaS business
\nmodels.<\/p>\n

There are positive examples of autonomous vehicles performing as
\nwell as humans in today's pilot programs in places like San
\nFrancisco and Phoenix in the US, and Beijing, Shanghai and
\nGuangzhou in Mainland China. But these same vehicles can still be
\nconfounded by complex traffic scenarios the next minute or the next
\nday, giving regulators and consumers alike reason to be
\ncautious.<\/p>\n

Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) and robo-taxis are nonetheless
\nexpected to lead the transition to an autonomous vehicle future,
\neven with the relatively cautious growth ahead. There are growing
\nnumbers of small-scale deployments in certain cities around the
\nworld. But S&amp;P Global Mobility forecasters do not expect that
\nto become widespread and broadly accessible within the next
\ndecade.<\/p>\n

MaaS-equipped vehicles and robo-taxi applications are expected
\nto represent less than 800,000 vehicles sold globally in 2035.
\nRobo-taxis will be carefully geofenced for the foreseeable future –
\noffering revenue service only within specific areas where they have
\nalready been extensively tested, Carlson predicts. But their high
\nrate of utilization can be nonetheless effective at bringing new
\nmobility options to some consumers and new revenue streams to
\nautomakers and mobility providers.<\/p>\n

Owen Chen, senior principal analyst from S&amp;P Global
\nMobility, explains that robo-taxi development and commercialization
\nis a complex and multi-stage process which can be summarized in
\nthree stages. First, technical feasibility demonstrations confirm
\nthat robo-taxis can operate safely and reliably in the targeted
\nconditions. Second, the long process of technology optimization,
\nintegration, and refining vehicle design eventually brings scale to
\nmanufacturing and deployment. Third is the efficient expansion to
\nmany new locations and operating conditions, with profit on top of
\nrevenue from meaningful adoption by consumers. Chen adds that, “In
\n2023, many are working through stage 1 while several are seeking
\nscale in stage 2, led by Mainland China and the US. But the
\nopportunity to restructure personal and shared mobility
\nexists.”<\/p>\n

In August, the California Public Utility Commission approved an
\nexpansion of operations in San Francisco for Waymo and Cruise.
\nMainland Chinese regulators are also enabling providers like Baidu
\nApollo, Pony AI, WeRide and more to test or operate paid services
\nin parts of many major Chinese cities. Europe is also actively
\ndeveloping regulations to help bring some uniformity to such
\nvehicles and services across the region.<\/p>\n

While the US captured an early lead in both development and
\ndeployment of Level 4 MaaS, Mainland China is expected to
\ncontribute the greatest volumes long-term, followed by the US and
\nEurope in that order, according to S&amp;P Global Mobility.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Challenges nonetheless remain for successful and widespread
\ndeployment of Level 4 MaaS. In addition to a fragmented regulatory
\nlandscape and
\nrelatively low public trust<\/a> that may hamper consumer acceptance
\nand adoption, the cost of technology and the time needed for robust
\ndevelopment and validation of hardware and software have quashed
\nthe optimism that defined much of the last decade.<\/p>\n

Reduced complexity in Level 2+ and Level 3 features face less
\nrisk or uncertainty for each of these factors, hence the more
\npositive outlook for those technologies in the short term. This
\noptimism is further boosted as some regulators are also mandating
\ncertain basic safety assistance features that will generate even
\nwider exposure for selective automation.<\/p>\n

Automakers, suppliers, technology companies and mobility
\nproviders alike, however, remain committed to a future of safe and
\nequitable autonomous mobility, even if it takes more time to get
\nthere.<\/p>\n

“There's plenty of opportunity and growth ahead,” says Carlson.
\n“Significant volumes measured in the hundreds of thousands per year
\nare quite likely to come before 2030\u2014but a future of shared
\nmobility everywhere all the time will remain an aspiration for the
\nindustry.”<\/p>\n

Download a copy of the
\nfull report<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\n\n

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The era of peak hype has passed, but forecasters still see
\nlong-term adoption in certain segments that benefit from today's
\nrise in automated driving technologyA world of self-driving vehicles and mobility-on-demand is
\nlikely to exist eventually, b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":479,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[3267],"tags":[61,122,127,129,124,128,125,132,131,133,126,130,123,66,94,88,97,56,64,65,60,3344,3351,3357,3360,3335,3340,3362,112,3353,40,75,95,3350,3352,3356,3343,3359,3339,3345,3334,3341,104,3354,33,120,3358,3349,3337,3348,105,101,98,115,30,29,41,86,3342,3361,70,69,68,72,71,26,118,108,87,3355,46,55,48,52,54,51,50,83,3338,62,58,57,3336,109,35,3346,59,63,85,79,82,96,80,27,81,114,44,42,43,45,38,39,110,117,100,111,116,3300,73,89,90,92,91,93,84,78,37,102,34,36,77,67,74,99,113,3347,119,28,121,32,47,49,53,103,31,76],"class_list":["post-10585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-car-or-automobile","tag-airpods","tag-anime","tag-anime-characters","tag-anime-cosplay","tag-anime-edits","tag-anime-merchandise","tag-anime-movies","tag-anime-news","tag-anime-recommendations","tag-anime-reviews","tag-anime-series","tag-anime-streaming","tag-animes","tag-app-store","tag-app-store-samsung","tag-appgallery","tag-appgallery-oneplus","tag-apple","tag-apple-music","tag-apple-tv","tag-apple-watch","tag-auto-financing-guide","tag-automobile-industry-news","tag-automobile-laws-and-regulations","tag-automobile-shows-and-expos","tag-automobile-specifications","tag-automobile-technology","tag-autonomous-vehicles","tag-bbc-sport","tag-best-cars-for-long-drives","tag-best-mobile-games","tag-bixby","tag-bixby-xiaomi","tag-car-accessories","tag-car-comparison","tag-car-customization-ideas","tag-car-insurance-advice","tag-car-interior-design-ideas","tag-car-maintenance-tips","tag-car-resale-value","tag-car-reviews","tag-car-safety-features","tag-champions-league","tag-city-cars","tag-cyberpunk","tag-cyberpunk-2077","tag-driving-tips-and-tricks","tag-eco-friendly-cars","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-family-cars","tag-fantasy-football","tag-fifa","tag-football","tag-formula-1","tag-fortnite","tag-free-fire","tag-free-mobile-games","tag-freebuds-pro","tag-fuel-efficiency-tips","tag-future-of-automobiles","tag-galaxy-a52","tag-galaxy-note-20","tag-galaxy-s21","tag-galaxy-watch-4","tag-galaxy-z-fold-3","tag-game","tag-games","tag-golf","tag-harmonyos","tag-highway-cars","tag-how-to-backup-iphone","tag-how-to-factory-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-restore-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-5","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-6","tag-huawei","tag-hybrid-cars","tag-ios","tag-ipad","tag-iphone","tag-latest-car-models","tag-live-soccer","tag-lol","tag-luxury-cars","tag-macbook","tag-macos","tag-mate-40-pro","tag-mi-11-lite","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p-huawei","tag-mi-smart-band-6","tag-minecraft","tag-miui","tag-mlb-scores","tag-mobile-game-design","tag-mobile-game-development","tag-mobile-game-marketing","tag-mobile-game-monetization","tag-mobile-games","tag-mobile-gaming","tag-nba-scores","tag-nba-standings","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-scores","tag-nhl-scores","tag-off-road-vehicles","tag-one-ui","tag-oneplus","tag-oneplus-9-pro","tag-oneplus-buds-pro","tag-oneplus-nord-ce-5g","tag-oxygenos","tag-p40-pro-plus","tag-poco-x3-pro","tag-pokemon","tag-premier-league","tag-pubg","tag-pubg-mobile","tag-redmi-note-10-pro","tag-samsung","tag-samsung-pay","tag-soccer","tag-sports","tag-sports-cars","tag-steam","tag-steeam","tag-top-10-anime","tag-valorant","tag-when-do-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-does-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-is-the-iphone-7-coming-out","tag-world-cup","tag-xbox-series-x","tag-xiaomi"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10585","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/479"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10585"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10585\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10586,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10585\/revisions\/10586"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/g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