- \n
- S&P Global Mobility estimates that the combined impact
\ncould be about 3,200 units per day, on a straight-time production
\nschedule.<\/li>\n - Prior to the strike action, the S&P Global Mobility
\nlight-vehicle production forecast expected combined production at
\nthese three plants to decline 17% compared with 2022. In 2022,
\nthese plants produced about 770,000 units.<\/li>\n - Days supply: Reports indicate that at the end of August
\nWrangler had 74 days supply, Gladiator 188 days supply and Canyon
\n62 days, though Colorado only 35 days, Bronco 40 days, and Ranger
\nonly 26 days.<\/li>\n - Toyota is about to launch an all-new Tacoma, while the strike
\nwill hamper start of production for Ford Ranger and ramp-up of
\nupdated GMC Canyon and Chevrolet Colorado and Jeep's transition to
\nminor updates to Wrangler and Gladiator, potentially handing
\nsegment-leading Toyota an inventory advantage<\/li>\n - According to S&P Global Mobility estimates, Ford, GM and
\nStellantis combined account for about 49% of US light-vehicle
\nproduction in 2022. Prior to the strike, the forecast was expected
\nto drop to 45% in 2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nOutlook<\/strong><\/p>\n
The UAW strike against three key mid-size truck and utility
\nplants affects the Chevrolet Colorado\/GMC Canyon and Chevrolet
\nExpress\/Savana; Ford Bronco and Ranger, and Jeep Wrangler and
\nGladiator. Through July 31, 2023, these products have accounted for
\na total of 324,507 units registered, according to S&P Global
\nMobility light-vehicle registration data, which is 14% lower than
\nat the same point of 2022, when 377,914 units were registered. In
\nfull-year 2022, these vehicles saw a combined 617,732 units
\nregistered. The plants affected include Ford's Michigan Assembly
\nPlant, GM's Wentzville Assembly Plant and Stellantis' Toledo
\nAssembly Complex (including both Toledo North and Toledo Supplier
\nPark). According to S&P Global Mobility light vehicle
\nproduction forecast data, closures of these plants suggest
\npotential impact of about 3,200 units per day of lost production,
\nassuming a straight-time schedule.<\/p>\nUnder revised offers, GM offered a 20% raise to hourly workers,
\nwhile Stellantis has offered a 17.5% raise and Ford has offered
\n20%. However, based on the information disclosed publicly by all
\nsides, the automakers and the UAW remain far apart on several
\nissues. It is unclear how long the strike will last, though
\nAutomotive News<\/em> reports that the UAW has said it will not
\nnegotiate on Friday, September 15, indicating the strike will run
\nat least through the weekend. The UAW has indicated that other
\nstrategic targets will be added if negotiations continue to fail,
\nthough what these will be is also not yet specified.<\/p>\nIn terms of disrupting upcoming production launches of updated
\nvehicles, the Michigan Assembly Plant is scheduled to see start of
\nproduction of a new model of Ranger in September while Jeep is
\nadjusting for minor updates to Wrangler and Gladiator for 2024
\nmodel. The strike against these mid-size pickup trucks is also
\nhappening as the latest-generation segment-leader Toyota Tacoma is
\nset to arrive. Ford is scheduled to start production of the new
\nRanger in September; the strike could delay that production start
\nand further complicate GM's ramp of Canyon and Colorado, both of
\nwhich are new for 2023 model year.<\/p>\nThe choice to target mid-size trucks instead of full-size trucks
\nreflects the fragility of the strike effort. While there is a need
\nto strike where there will be noticeable impact, the UAW avoided
\nthe full-size pick-up truck plants in this initial action. Though
\nultimately EV versions of the products at these facilities is
\nexpected, the transition is forecast to be outside the expected
\ncontract period for the Ford projects and late in the contract
\nperiod for Stellantis. GM is expected to see EV production of its
\nvans in Wentzville about 2026. The UAW is aiming to impact
\nautomakers at important points and selecting pick-up trucks clearly
\nis aimed at looking at a high-margin, high-impact product. Sales of
\nthese mid-size products are substantially below the much more
\nprofitable full-size pick-up trucks.<\/p>\nInitial observations from our team include:<\/strong><\/p>\n
Stephanie Brinley, Associate Director, Automotive
\nIntelligence, S&P Global Mobility:<\/strong><\/p>\n“The depth of the strike impact will depend on the length
\nand whether it is expanded to other plants, and these are unknowns
\nso far. However, in terms of perception and consumer expectations,
\nthe uncertainty created by a well-publicized strategic strike has
\npotential for a more immediate impact. This could play out in
\nconsumers looking to close vehicle purchases more quickly over a
\nperceived concern for lack of inventory, while others may pull back
\nand opt to wait it out. And if the strike does continue and does
\nexpand, there will be actual and not only perceived inventory
\nissues.”<\/em><\/p>\nJoe Langley, Associate Director, North American
\nProduction Forecasting, S&P Global Mobility:<\/strong><\/p>\n“While the UAW strike starts with three vehicle assembly
\nplants, this signifies the beginning of a potentially long-lasting
\nand damaging strike. This strategy aims to gradually intensify
\npressure on the manufacturers in the coming weeks with more plants
\nexpected to strike. It starts with daily losses of 3,264 units and
\ncould ultimately lead to cumulative losses reaching hundreds of
\nthousands of units.<\/em><\/p>\nOn a straight-time basis, production losses spanning
\nGM-Wentzville, Ford-Michigan Assembly and Stellantis-Toledo
\nAssembly Complex totals 3,264 units per day or 16,318 per a
\nfive-day workweek.”<\/em><\/p>\nMichael Robinet, Executive Director, Consulting
\nservices, S&P Global Mobility:<\/strong><\/p>\n“A prolonged labor dispute could cause irreparable damage to
\nan already fragile supply base weathering numerous challenges.
\nSuppliers are dealing with higher interest rates, extreme labor
\ninflation, fluctuating vehicle demand and the need to invest in
\nelectrified propulsion. Supplier viability is a major
\nconcern.”<\/em><\/p>\nEric Anderson, Associate director, North American
\nPowertrain Forecasting:<\/strong><\/p>\n“<\/em>Although no battery electric vehicle plants have
\nbeen targeted in the initial strike action, this may change in the
\ncoming weeks. Some of the impacted Jeep volume is PHEV production,
\nso that could have repercussions if the situation is not resolved
\nsoon. The UAW also recognizes that although there may be some risks
\nin the transition to BEVs, securing BEV investments is likely to
\nsecure a long-term future for the respective plants. Currently,
\ninternal combustion engine-based vehicles remain the higher volume
\nproducts, and likely more profitable, and therefore were targeted
\nfirst.”<\/em><\/p>\nWe are continuing to monitor the situation and will share
\nadditional details as we have them available. In the meantime,
\nplease reach out to us with questions at mobility@spglobal.com<\/a> .<\/p>\n\nCommercials Cooperation Advertisements:<\/b><\/h2>\r\n
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