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<\/p>\nLocal government financial challenges may blunt mainland China
\ncentral government efforts to accelerate public fleet
\nelectrification, especially concerning sanitation vehicles.<\/p>\n
In February 2022, eight departments of the Chinese central
\ngovernment jointly launched a pilot city program for the
\ncomprehensive electrification of public fleet vehicles throughout
\nthe country – with a timeline lasting from 2023 to 2025.<\/p>\n
But recent signs show progress could be slow, as local
\ngovernments are caught between pressure from existing national
\ntargets and reduced direct electrification subsidy support from the
\ncentral government.<\/p>\n
This pilot program is a concrete measure taken by the central
\ngovernment to achieve the country's goals for New Energy Vehicles
\n(battery-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles and fuel-cell
\nelectric vehicles), as outlined at the beginning of the 14th
\nFive-Year Plan. But a 12-year NEV subsidy ended last year, and the
\n2023 pilot program will not provide direct-finance subsidies.<\/p>\n
The pilot program aims to achieve a proportion of 80% of NEV for
\nnewly purchased public fleet vehicles in the pilot cities. Public
\nfleet vehicles<\/p>\n
include government vehicles, city buses, sanitation vehicles,
\ntaxis, mail delivery vehicles, urban logistic and distribution
\nvehicles, and airport vehicles.<\/p>\n
In addition, the notice also puts forward specific targets for
\nthe NEV charging service facilities in pilot cities. Pilot cities
\nare also required to explore NEV's new technologies and new
\nbusiness models.<\/p>\n
Among public sector vehicles, the most often used medium and
\nheavy commercial vehicles are sanitation vehicles (66%), city buses
\n(33%), and mail delivery vehicles (~1%). But in 2022, the NEV
\nproportion of the city bus market had already reached 99.5%.
\nTherefore, the sanitation vehicle market is the most likely to be
\naffected by the latest notice.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Following the COVID-19 pandemic, it is likely that sanitation
\nvehicle demand will have a purchasing rebound. However, S&P
\nMobility expects the rebound will be limited because of the recent
\nshrinking in local government expenditures. In mainland China,
\nsanitation vehicle purchasing highly relies on local government
\nbudgets, and after three years of the pandemic, local government
\nfinances are under pressure. Meanwhile, the central government has
\nfurther tightened its management of local government debt.<\/p>\n
Here's why this matters: This public fleet vehicle NEV pilot
\nprogram works differently from previous NEV pilot programs. The
\ncentral government will not directly provide financial subsidies,
\nbut instead will provide unspecified policy incentives to local
\ngovernments. However, the NEV target proposed in this pilot program
\nis relative rather than containing a specific volume target as per
\nprevious plans.<\/p>\n
For local governments under budgetary stress, that means the
\ntotal increase in the sanitation vehicle market and the increase in
\nnew energy vehicles may be limited. However, the pilot program will
\nalso help those pilot cities improve the NEV eco-system for public
\nfleet vehicles – including charging facilities, which will create a
\nbetter environment for the rapid development of NEV sanitary
\nvehicles when they arrive in the future.<\/p>\n
Looking beyond the pilot program, prospects for NEV vehicles
\nremain bright. Outside the public fleet segment, demand for NEVs to
\nreduce carbon emissions in other industries – especially the steel
\nindustry – is entering a rapid growth phase in the near coming
\nyear. As a result, S&P Mobility analysts continue to expect
\nthat the NEV market share in the medium-heavy duty truck market
\nwill climb and reach 3.1% and 3.9% in 2023 and 2024, respectively,
\nand as high as 12.0% by 2030.<\/p>\n
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