\nunits<\/strong><\/p>\n
YTD 2023: +1.5%; 1,848,595 units vs. 1,821,896 July 2023: +2.7%; 337,697 units vs. 328,774 YTD 2023:<\/strong>+6.2%; \u7acb\u523b\u8a3b\u518a\u53ca\u5831\u540d\u96fb\u8166\u88dc\u7fd2\u8ab2\u7a0b\u5427! <\/a> www.ITSec.vip<\/a> www.Sraa.com.hk<\/a>
\nunits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n
\nNations (ASEAN) recorded about 266,000 units in July 2023, marking
\nan increase of 5.8% compared with July 2022. For the year-to-date
\nperformance, the market increased 1.5% to about 1.85 million units.
\nThe ASEAN market will likely decrease 0.2% to 3.34 million units in
\n2023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nyear to about 57,200 units. The current high household debt,
\ntighter auto loan approval, poor export performance from global
\nsoftened demand and rising political uncertainty have delayed
\nconsumer purchasing on automotives.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nby 25 basis points in January, March, May and August to 2.25%,
\nwhich is expected to push borrow costs to its highest in eight
\nyears. Thailand's July headline inflation slightly increased by
\n0.38% from 0.23% in June, driven by the rise on prices of food and
\nbeverages. The government expects the inflation to continue to
\nincrease in August, according to world economic uncertainty and
\nThailand's severe drought.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nupdate, the Thai economy is set to improve by 3.38% in 2023;
\nrecovering domestic consumption (especially in the services
\nsector), the pickup in foreign tourists and a better-than-expected
\nglobal economy lead the improvement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\ninternational tourism target from 30 million visitors to 25 million
\nvisitors, compared with 11 million visitors in 2022 and 40 million
\nvisitors in 2019. Mainland Chinese tourists \u2014 accounting for
\nmore than 25% of Thailand's total visitors \u2014 should only be
\nabout 5 million visitors from 7 million-8 million visitors at the
\nlast expectation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nin the global economy and financial markets. Softening global
\ndemand including the US, EU and mainland China, and concerns about
\ngeopolitical tensions have affected Thailand exports' value.
\nExports in 2023 may contract by more than 2%, according to the
\nFederation of Thai Industries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nMay. This led to decline in domestic spending due to risk of
\nprotests and political instability. In addition, any delay in
\ngovernment formation would result in a delay in budget approval in
\nthe fiscal year of 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nimproved for many manufacturers, although the problem is still
\ndelaying production and delivery for some models.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nlower inflation; the official announcement of a new prime minister
\nand the cabinet; the peak season of foreign tourists; the easing of
\nthe automotive supply constraint problem; as well as the
\npossibility of high promotion and rushing to buy some in-stock
\nvehicles before completely built-up (CBU) battery-electric vehicle
\n(BEV) benefits will end in December 2023 and the new Euro 5 will be
\napplied in 2024.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nyear to 0.85 million units. The downgrade is also possible
\nconsidering rising negative risks, including the delay on new
\ngovernment formation, decrease in 2023 export and tourism targets
\nby the government, and tighter auto loan approval according to high
\nhousehold debt.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nwith support from government incentives, the high price of gasoline
\nand concerns over fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in
\nThailand. The government's 2022 BEV incentives for CBU, including a
\nreduction of import taxes, a cut of the excise tax and a cash
\nsubsidy worth up to 150,000 baht, will end before 2024. While we
\nexpect that original equipment manufacturers who joined in the EV
\n3.0 scheme will start local BEV production in 2024 onward, many
\nOEMs including Changan Automobile and GAC Motor are anticipated to
\nparticipate in the tentative EV 3.5 scheme if it is approved by the
\nnew government.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nwar and the uncertain global economy will pressure the Thai
\neconomy, businesses, consumer behaviors and automotive market. We
\nexpect a k-shaped recovery among business sectors, while high
\nhousehold debt reaching 90% of GDP will hamper the ability to pay
\ndebt, affect decisions to buy high-valued goods and cause stricter
\nloan approvals from financial institutions. In addition, automotive
\nprices that were pushed up in 2023 will remain high, suppressing
\npurchasing power and disrupting automotive demand. The slowdown in
\nkey economies will hurt the global economy including the ASEAN
\neconomy and consequently ASEAN auto demand. Therefore, a sales
\nrecovery will be further delayed, returning to the pre-pandemic
\nlevel in 2025.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\ntransportation megaproject and substantial overseas investments to
\njoin the Eastern Economic Corridor \u2014 Thailand's new flagship
\neconomic zone \u2014 will continue as many companies could allow
\nmore remote working and relocation away from crowded big cities;
\nbordering provinces have also gained free-trade and labor
\nopportunities with the creation of the ASEAN Economic Community.
\nThe government's electric vehicle scheme will contribute to Thai
\nmarket demand in the medium-to-long term. Continuous new vehicle
\nlaunches, and the global battery price decline will lead to better
\naffordability and a wider target consumer range in the future. In
\nthe longer term, the automotive industry will grow at a slower pace
\nas penetration levels and public transportation \u2014 especially
\nthe Skytrain in Bangkok \u2014 expand. In addition, there are more
\nconcerns about limited roads, and high traffic congestion in big
\ncities will be a future threat.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nover year to about 74,000 units. The negative growth was due to the
\nslowdown in exports, the high interest rate and the Fed Fund Rate
\nhike. Indonesia exports slumped by more than 20% year over year in
\nJune, amid the declining prices of its top commodities and the
\nweakening demand from its key trade partners. The Bank of Indonesia
\nhiked its policy interest rate at the beginning of 2023, which was
\nhigher than the last-year level. This is likely to limit the
\nliquidity of car loans because cars will be less affordable for
\nconsumers. Fed Fund Rate hikes are likely to impact the Indonesian
\nexchange rate. This can make Indonesia's exports more expensive.
\nThe negative factors mentioned earlier can affect consumer
\nconfidence in buying big items. In a month-over-month comparison,
\nthe market also decreased by 2.6%. Many customers are waiting to
\nbuy vehicles during the auto show in August to receive good
\npromotions and campaigns. In the year to date, the Indonesian
\nmarket increased 3.7% year over year to about 540,000 units.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\n0.97 million units. The main factors influencing 2023 performance
\nwill likely be continuous strong private spending, leading to solid
\neconomic growth of about 4%-5% (close to 2022 level). New car
\nmodels will be available in the market, offering fresh options to
\ncar buyers and restoring their purchasing confidence. Electrified
\nvehicles will likely gain more market share thanks to the latest
\nannouncement by the government regarding a value-added tax (VAT)
\nreduction, adding to the current low excise tax scheme; the
\ngovernment had announced the incentive, eligible for local
\nassembled BEVs with local content of at least 40% that would lower
\nthe VAT from 11% to 1% from April to December 2023. However,
\nongoing high fuel price from the government subsidy cut to save the
\ncountry's costly budget, financial instability from monetary
\ntightening, and the global economic slowdown spreading to the US
\nwill create unease for consumers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\ncontinue to rise owing to robust demand, product refreshment,
\nfurther corporate tax cut expectations and public infrastructure
\nimprovement. The fuel prices rising from the government subsidy cut
\nsince September 2022 will likely affect consumer purchasing. The
\nhigh raw material prices owing to the Russia-Ukraine tension would
\ndent market performance through the medium term, as it will likely
\nraise car prices and add pressure to the affordability of a new
\ncar. In the long term, the market should grow, owing to the rising
\nmiddle class. Considering the penetration rate in the country is
\nstill low, there remains plenty of opportunities for further growth
\nin the years ahead. However, mass rapid transit (MRT) programs may
\nresult in consumers prolonging the decision to buy a new car,
\nbecause MRT can accommodate many people at the same time through
\nbusiness areas that currently face severe traffic jams.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\nASEAN production<\/h2>\n
\nunits<\/strong><\/p>\n
\n2,413,099<\/strong>units vs. 2,272,998 units<\/strong><\/p>\n\n
\nlight-vehicle production in July 2023 increased 3% year over year
\nwith 337,697 units built. Year-to-date production in July grew 6.2%
\nyear over year with 2.41 million units built, thanks to original
\nequipment manufacturers' strong outputs during the first half of
\n2023, in a bid to fulfill the backlogs of 2022 across the region as
\nwell as the export momentum in Indonesia and Thailand. In the
\nAugust forecast update, ASEAN's full-year 2023 production remains
\nthe previous forecast outlook with 4.19 million units, a slight
\ncontraction of 1.8% year over year. Vietnam production forecast has
\nbeen cut by nearly 35,000 units, primarily weaker production
\nrecorded during the first seven months of the year, as the
\nautomotive market has been significantly hit by the ongoing
\neconomic headwinds. However, it is offset by the upgraded forecast
\noutlook in Indonesia and Thailand, thanks to the stronger than
\nexpected actual production during the second half. ASEAN's
\nproduction during the second half of 2023 should be able to
\nmaintain the output of over 2.1 million units amid the weaker
\nmarket outlook across the region. The 2024 and 2025 outlook is now
\nforecast to remain flat with 4.2 million and 4.3 million units,
\nrespectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nunits, a growth of 3.9% year over year, while the year-to-date
\nproduction of the first seven months of the year expanded 7.3% year
\nover year with 1.05 million units built. This was significantly
\ndriven by OEMs' production to fulfill the backlogs of 2022,
\nparticularly in the pickup, sport utility vehicle (SUV) and
\nsubcompact passenger car segments. Ford reportedly continued to
\nface the chip supply constraints for the Ford Ranger during August,
\nwith an expected running rate at 80% of the normal capacity, and it
\ncould take until the fourth quarter to resume full-scale operation.
\nIn late July, Mitsubishi recently introduced the all new-generation
\nMitsubishi Triton pickup in Thailand and planned to ramp production
\nfor export from the late fourth quarter. Thailand's 2023
\nlight-vehicle production was revised up by 18,800 units to reach
\n1.84 million units, mainly due to revised actual production of
\nIsuzu during the second quarter together with an upgraded third-
\nand fourth-quarter outlook for Ford and Toyota. Federal of Thai
\nIndustries (FTI), an automotive association in Thailand, has cut
\ntheir forecast for domestic sales and production to 0.85 million
\nunits and 1.86 million units, respectively, given the tightening
\nmonetary policies, high interest rate and slower demand outlook.
\nPickups should maintain their stronghold in Thai production with 1
\nmillion units, accounting for 55% of the country's total production
\non the back of robust export demand from the Middle East and
\nOceania market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nexpected with an increase of 0.38% year over year, primarily due to
\nthe lower food and energy prices. In August, the Bank of Thailand
\nraised the policy interest rate for the seventh consecutive hike to
\n2.25%, the highest in the last 9 years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nvehicles in the mainstream midsize pickup segment, including the
\nnext-generation Mitsubishi Triton and the next-generation Toyota
\nHilux. Honda Motor Co. Ltd. announced the local assembly of the e:
\nN1, a fully battery-electric compact SUV in the fourth quarter of
\n2023. The new players, including BYD Auto Co. Ltd. and Horizon Plus
\n(Foxconn-PTT's joint venture), have announced the rollout of their
\nbattery-electric vehicles (BEVs) at their newly established Thai
\nmanufacturing facilities starting in 2024; the companies plan to
\nexport right-hand drive BEVs to the global market starting in the
\nmedium term. In the meantime, mainland Chinese OEMs including SAIC
\nMotor Corp. Ltd. (MG) and Great Wall Motor Co. Ltd. plan to start
\nlocal assembly of their BEVs by 2024 under the Thai government's
\nelectric vehicle scheme and subsidy program. In addition, S&P
\nGlobal Mobility analysts anticipate Changan Automobile Co. Ltd. and
\nGAC Motor to receive the investment approvals from Thailand's Board
\nof Investment by late 2023 to build manufacturing facilities for
\nelectrified vehicles in Thailand, with a rollout plan from 2025
\ngoing forward. Moreover, Chery is expected to join its mainland
\nChinese counterparts to enter the Thai market from 2024 with a
\nlocal manufacturing plan from 2026 at the earliest. We expect the
\ndemand for Thai-built electrified vehicles including full-hybrid
\nelectric vehicles (FHEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)
\nand BEVs will maintain steady growth, largely driven by the lower
\nexcise taxes and subsidies. The combined production of electrified
\nvehicles including hybrids (FHEV, MHEV and PHEV) and BEVs should
\ncontinue to rise from 38% of the country's total production in 2026
\nto 59% in 2030. The Thai government anticipates BEV production in
\nThailand to be 30% of the country's total production in 2030.
\nHowever, S&P Global Mobility analysts estimate the figure will
\nreach 25%, given consumer skepticism and concerns over the
\ndevelopment of charging infrastructure over the course of 2025-30.
\nNonetheless, Thailand will lead the EV market and production base
\nin Southeast Asia owing to the government's investment scheme and
\nincentives, including subsidies and tax reductions coupled with
\nOEMs' manufacturing strategies and a strong automotive supply
\nchain.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nhave increased 6% year over year, with 117,935 units, while
\nyear-to-date production grew 6.8% year over year, or 774,627 units.
\nIn the August forecast round, 2023 production was slightly revised
\nup by 5,000 units, given the revised outlook for mainstream
\nsubcompact multipurpose vehicles (MPVs). Having recorded the
\nhistoric high production of 1.37 million units, with growth of
\n29.1% year over year in 2022, Indonesia's full-year 2023 production
\nwill maintain 2022's level with only a mild contraction of 0.3%
\nyear over year, amid the slower pace of demand as well as high
\ninterest rate. Indonesia's completely built-up exports will likely
\naccount for nearly 0.5 million, accounting for 40% of the country's
\ntotal production, thanks to the growing export demand for the
\nmainstream B- and C-segment MPVs and SUVs from Hyundai, Mitsubishi,
\nSuzuki and Toyota. Indonesia's light-vehicle production forecast
\nfor 2024-25 is anticipated to maintain the flat growth of 1.41
\nmillion and 1.42 million units respectively in the wake of slower
\nautomotive market demand post-pandemic. Over the past few years,
\nJapanese OEMs in Indonesia have faced more challenges and intense
\ncompetition from mainland Chinese and South Korean OEMs \u2014
\nparticularly the mainstream B-segment MPVs and B-segment SUVs as
\nwell as the BEV segment \u2014 as Japanese OEMs are not expected to
\nroll out the locally built BEVs before 2029. However, they should
\nmaintain their market stronghold in Indonesia, accounting for over
\n80% of the country's total production through the longer term. In
\nthe medium term (2025), MPVs and SUVs should continue their
\nmainstay in Indonesia with a production share of 38% and 32%,
\nrespectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\n2023, accelerating from a revised 5.04% during the first quarter of
\n2023, supported by strong consumer spending during the Muslim month
\nof Ramadan. Private consumption, which contributes half of
\nIndonesia's GDP, grew 5.23% year over year. Indonesia's CPI cooled
\nto 3.08% year over year, remaining within the Bank of Indonesia's
\n(BI's) target range of 2%-4%. BI kept the key interest rate
\nunchanged in July at 5.75%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\nlocally assembled BEVs with local content of at least 40%, through
\na reduction of the value-added tax (VAT) from 11% to 1%, effective
\nfrom April 1 to Dec. 31, 2023. The government is expected to
\nintroduce new tax incentives for BEVs, including further VAT
\nreduction from 1% to 0%. In addition, luxury goods sales tax for
\nimported BEVs will be exempted, while the deadline localization of
\nlocally built BEVs with at least 40% requirements in 2024 will be
\nrevised to 2026. In the short-to-medium term, Hyundai and Wuling
\nMotors Ltd. will benefit from the government's VAT reduction
\nprogram as they are assembling BEVs in the country. We expect Chery
\nAutomobile Co. Ltd. and DFSK Motor to start the local assembly of
\ntheir BEVs by 2024 and 2025, respectively. In addition to the huge
\ninvestment from OEMs, Indonesia is bracing to become the key
\nproduction base of EV battery producers on the back of the
\ncountry's rich nickel reserves, which account for over 24% of world
\nnickel production. The global EV battery producers including CATL
\nCo. Ltd. and LG-Energy Solution Ltd. will likely commence EV
\nbattery production during 2025-26. We expect BYD to invest in BEV
\nassembly in Indonesia after the rollout of its local manufacturing
\nfacilities of EV buses (2026). Indonesia will remain the Southeast
\nAsian bloc's second-largest producer after Thailand, with
\nproduction to reach nearly 1.5 million units by 2029 on the back of
\nrising purchasing power from the working population, which accounts
\nfor nearly 40% of its total population of 270 million, and growing
\nexport outputs coupled with steady economic expansion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n
\n2.7% year over year with 52,305 units produced. Year-to-date
\nproduction grew 13.7% year over year with 408,551 units, primarily
\ndue to robust production in a bid to deliver 2022's backlogs to
\ncustomers during the first half of the year. As OEMs have now
\nreturned to the normalized production rate, we anticipate weaker
\nproduction outputs during the second half of 2023, given the
\npost-pent-up demand effect and consumer sentiment over slower
\neconomic expansion. Malaysia's full-year 2023 production is now
\nexpected to decline 3.5% year over year with 0.66 million units.
\nHowever, Malaysia's production during 2024-25 should continue to
\nmaintain negative growth with annual outputs of about 0.62 million
\namid high vehicle penetration in the domestic market, which
\naccounts for country's production of nearly 94% with limited export
\npotential.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\nCommercials Cooperation Advertisements:<\/b><\/h2>\r\n
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