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The 150th Run for the Roses!<\/p>\n
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Welcome to the 14th Annual Casual Kentucky Derby Preview! <\/p>\n
It\u2019s great to be back with you previewing the 150th<\/sup> Run for the Roses on the First Saturday in May. In this column you will find the tried-and-true handicapping analysis of the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports that has netted its followers thousands of dollars over the last decade plus.<\/p>\n A change this year! Rather than go on and on and inundate you with the tens of thousands of words and videos of the horses like you have grown accustomed to in previous Casual Derby Previews, we\u2019re going to get right to what you want to know. <\/p>\n As in years past I\u2019m going to narrow the 20-horse field down to a group of 6 for a real casual $1, 6-horse trifecta box ($120) of Casual Destiny and Hope and Freedom and America. Without further ado, below is the most casual analysis of the 2024 Kentucky Derby field you will likely find anywhere else, from someone who has actually watched all of these horses run in all of their prep races. No, really. EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM. Indeed, after all these years my life still has very little meaning.<\/p>\n Away we go!<\/p>\n Here is this year\u2019s stable of ponies\u2026<\/p>\n 1. Dornoch 20-1:<\/strong> Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n 2. Sierra Leone 3-1:<\/strong><\/p>\n The 2 post is concerning for our Blue Grass champ and best closer in the field. However, Sierra is a visually impressive looking horse that will be running at the end.<\/p>\n Verdict: Include<\/p>\n \n 3. Mystik Dan 20-1:<\/strong><\/p>\n Good value here for another closer in the field. Got a rail trip to win the Southwest Stakes and could get the same here out of the 3. Two Phils ran out of the 3 post and hit last year.<\/p>\n Verdict: Include in exotics. <\/p>\n \n 4. Catching Freedom 8-1:<\/strong> Verdict: Include.<\/p>\n \n 5. Catalytic 30-1:<\/strong> Verdict: TOSS.<\/p>\n \n 6. Just Steel 20-1:<\/strong> Verdict: TOSS.<\/p>\n \n 7. Honor Marie 20-1<\/strong>: Verdict: Include.<\/p>\n \n 8. Just a Touch 10-1<\/strong>: Verdict: TOSS. <\/p>\n \n 9. Encino: (SCRATCHED)<\/strong> <\/p>\n 10. TO Password 30-1:<\/strong><\/p>\n After last year\u2019s flop by Derma Sotogake, I am not betting on a UAE Derby winner or Japanese horse ever again until one beats me.<\/p>\n The password is\u2026TOSS <\/p>\n \n 11. Forever Young: 10-1<\/strong><\/p>\n See above.<\/p>\n Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n \n 12. Track Phantom 20-1<\/strong>: Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n \n 13. West Saratoga 50-1<\/strong>: Verdict: TOSS.<\/p>\n \n 14. Endlessly 30-1<\/strong>:<\/p>\n The Jeff Ruby Stakes winner has value here but the only Derby horse he beat in that race was West Saratoga.<\/p>\n Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n \n 15. Domestic Product 30-1:<\/strong> Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n \n 16. Grand Mo the First 50-1:<\/strong> Verdict: TOSS.<\/p>\n \n 17. Fierceness 5-2<\/strong>: Verdict: Include<\/p>\n \n 18. Stronghold 20-1<\/strong>: Verdict: TOSS.<\/p>\n 19. Resilience 20-1:<\/strong><\/p>\n Wood Memorial winner that to me looks better than his current odds. I like the value. <\/p>\n Verdict: Include. <\/p>\n \n 20. Society Man 50-1:<\/strong><\/p>\n No.<\/p>\n Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n \n 21. Epic Ride 30-1:<\/strong> Verdict: TOSS<\/p>\n That leaves our 6 horses as:<\/p>\n 2. Sierra Leone 3-1<\/strong><\/p>\n 3. Mystik Dan 20-1<\/strong><\/p>\n 4. Catching Freedom 8-1<\/strong><\/p>\n 7. Honor Marie 20-1<\/strong><\/p>\n 17. Fierceness 5-2<\/strong><\/p>\n 19. Resilience 20-1<\/strong><\/p>\n The above $1, 6 horse trifecta box with the 2, 3, 4, 7, 17, and 19 costs $120. <\/strong><\/p>\n RACE PICKS:<\/strong><\/p>\n There is no one in this field that is going to beat Fierceness IF<\/strong> Fierceness is able to get a clean trip out of the 17 post and settle just off the leaders around the first turn without getting zapped by early speed. However, picking the favorite to win is no fun and won\u2019t win you a damn thing. So, if I had to guess at a win\/place\/show\/super with some with value upside, I\u2019ll go with: <\/p>\n WIN: 2. Sierra Leone 3-1<\/p>\n PLACE: 7. Honor Marie 20-1<\/p>\n SHOW: 4. Catching Freedom 8-1 <\/p>\n 4th: 19. Resilience 20-1<\/p>\n 5th: 17. Fierceness 5-2<\/p>\n 6th: 3. Mystik Dan 20-1<\/p>\n If you want to place a more reasonable wager with Fierceness at the top because you are smart, a $1 trifecta key with the 17 over the 2, 3, 4, 7, 19 will set you back $20.<\/strong><\/p>\n \n Remember, a bad day at the track is better than a good day at the office.<\/p>\n Enjoy the race.<\/p>\n \n\n \u7acb\u523b\u8a3b\u518a\u53ca\u5831\u540d\u96fb\u8166\u88dc\u7fd2\u8ab2\u7a0b\u5427! <\/a> www.ITSec.vip<\/a> www.Sraa.com.hk<\/a>
Showed early promise on the Derby trail with 3 straight wins including in the Fountain of Youth, Dornoch was soundly beaten by Sierra Leone and finished 4th<\/sup> in the Blue Grass. Would need everything to collapse around him to hit the board. 1 post is virtually an auto-toss for me.<\/p>\n
Not much to dislike for our Louisiana Derby champ. Grinder with good speed.<\/p>\n
Nothing jumps off the page for me with this horse. Blown out by Fierceness in a weak Florida Derby field.<\/p>\n
Well-raced horse that had a big jump in speed figures from the Rebel to the Arkansas, just don\u2019t see him being good enough to hit the board here.<\/p>\n
Really like this plucky horse and especially at this value. A game 2nd<\/sup> in the Louisiana Derby.<\/p>\n
The 8 post produced the winner last year with Mage, but this horse seems to like the front and was run down by Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass. I don\u2019t see his fortunes changing here.<\/p>\n
Didn\u2019t even bother in the Louisiana Derby and would be surprised if we see anything different here. <\/p>\n
I love the city of Saratoga and highly recommend that any horse racing enthusiast makes the pilgrimage to the Spa. However, I do not love this horse.<\/p>\n
The Tampa Bay Derby champ would need a huge effort and everything to go right for him to hit the board. I doubt it happens.<\/p>\n
Was able to grab 3rd <\/sup>in the Tampa and Florida but soundly beaten in both and steps up in class here.<\/p>\n
Possible super horse and the only one in this field that has run two 100+ speed figure races, Fierceness is a well-deserved favorite. Absolutely mauled the Florida Derby field without having to give much of an effort. No value at his likely odds at post time and no horse has ever won the Derby out of the 17, but ignore at your own risk.<\/p>\n
Won the Sunland and the Santa Anita out west over weak fields with no other Derby contenders. Would need a big race to hit the board here. Don\u2019t see it.<\/p>\n
The new entrant into the field to replace Encino, was run down in the Blue Grass in his first step up in class. Don\u2019t see anything epic happening for him in this race.<\/p>\nCommercials Cooperation Advertisements:<\/b><\/h2>\r\n
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