{"id":121787,"date":"2024-04-29T04:50:36","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T03:50:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/fuel-for-thought-electric-vehicle-planning-oems-suppliers.html"},"modified":"2024-04-29T04:50:36","modified_gmt":"2024-04-29T03:50:36","slug":"fuel-for-thought-from-aspiration-to-reality-building-the-trail-to-vehicle-electrification","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/29\/fuel-for-thought-from-aspiration-to-reality-building-the-trail-to-vehicle-electrification\/","title":{"rendered":"Fuel for Thought: From aspiration to reality, building the trail to vehicle electrification"},"content":{"rendered":"<p ><a class=\"primary-button\" href=\"https:\/\/directory.libsyn.com\/episode\/index\/id\/31041098\"  rel=\"noopener\">Listen to this Fuel for Thought<br \/>\npodcast<\/a><\/p>\n<h2 ><em>As EV sales slow, OEMs must consider multiple factors to<br \/>\nalign their EV production with government regulations and consumer<br \/>\ndemand.<\/em><\/h2>\n<h2 >Insights in this Newsletter &amp;amp; Podcast:<\/h2>\n<ul role=\"list\" >\n<li role=\"listitem\" data-aria-level=\"1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{\" data-listid=\"1\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\">\n<p>The pathway to electrification: from the here-and-now reality to<br \/>\nthe long-term aspiration of decarbonization in the transportation<br \/>\nsector.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li role=\"listitem\" data-aria-level=\"1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{\" data-listid=\"1\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\">\n<p>The US government regulatory aspirations and their pressure on<br \/>\nOEMs towards an accelerated response to electrification.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li role=\"listitem\" data-aria-level=\"1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{\" data-listid=\"1\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\">\n<p>The consumer mindset and sentiment towards electrification:<br \/>\npricing, technology and the willingness of adoption.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li role=\"listitem\" data-aria-level=\"1\" data-aria-posinset=\"1\" aria-setsize=\"-1\" data-list-defn-props=\"{\" data-listid=\"1\" data-font=\"Symbol\" data-leveltext=\"\uf0b7\">\n<p>OEM showroom response to align regulation and pricing via<br \/>\nalternative vehicle electrification pathways.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p >The first quarter of 2024 brought significant attention to the<br \/>\ntapering of electric vehicle (EV) momentum in the United States,<br \/>\nwith many clamoring &#8220;I told you so.&#8221; There is no question that<br \/>\naligning the current administration&#39;s aspirations of a decarbonized<br \/>\ntransportation sector to the reality of how consumers transition<br \/>\ntowards electrified vehicles will remain very fluid. Much of this<br \/>\nchapter of history will be written in the coming decade and is<br \/>\nlikely to feature surprises as the industry is shifting very<br \/>\nquickly to a known emerging technology with an unknown consumer<br \/>\nresponse. As a result, it is important to separate today&#39;s<br \/>\nfront-page news of early adopters from the mid-term ramp up and<br \/>\neventual long-term stabilization of EVs in the marketplace. It&#39;s<br \/>\nalso critical that all stakeholders are aware that failure to<br \/>\nelectrify is not an option.<\/p>\n<p >Light vehicle sales in the US closed the first quarter at an<br \/>\nestimated 15.4 million-unit SAAR, featuring growth of 5.4%<br \/>\nyear-over-year. The market is also transitioning from a<br \/>\nbuild-to-order model back to a business-as-usual world of<br \/>\ninventories and incentives for most segments. From a propulsion<br \/>\nperspective, the market share for EVs is largely unchanged<br \/>\nyear-over-year. This is starkly different from the 50% expansion of<br \/>\n2023 and the first time in many years where EV growth has tapered<br \/>\nto the single-digit level.<\/p>\n<p >The stagnation of EV sales is making many within the industry<br \/>\nuncomfortable (OEMs and suppliers alike) as the ongoing ramp-up of<br \/>\nEV production capacity requires a continuous robust expansion of<br \/>\nelectrification. Capacity in North America is roaring from 20<br \/>\nmillion units today to 26 million within the next few years, as all<br \/>\nOEMs want to proactively respond to regulatory requirements.<br \/>\nRoughly 20 plants are expected to start or restart operations this<br \/>\ndecade (since 2020) geared towards ZEV assembly and dozens more are<br \/>\nretooling their production from ICE to ZEV platforms.<\/p>\n<p ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0424\/north-america-installed-capacity_290420241703185.jpg\" alt=\"North America Installed Capacity\" width=\"800\" height=\"502\" \/><\/p>\n<p >This capacity expansion is pointing toward an industry<br \/>\nmigration\u2014with more than 65% of North America-manufactured<br \/>\nvehicles expected to be electric by 2030. However, the mood is<br \/>\ncautionary for many OEMs with a manufacturing base in North America<br \/>\nas they try to match government ambitions of a 50% Zero-Emission<br \/>\nVehicle (ZEV) market by 2030 (roughly a six-fold expansion in a<br \/>\nsix-year period) alongside weaker consumer demand. This alignment<br \/>\nis only aggravated as it comes on the tails of a newly minted labor<br \/>\nagreement that will boost wages by over 25% through 2027 for most<br \/>\nplants in the US and Canada and is likely to erode<br \/>\nprofitability.<\/p>\n<p >It is also important to mention that the Biden administration<br \/>\nunderstood that matching a 50% ZEV regulatory target would need<br \/>\nsupport. Simply put, this was going to be a carrot-and-stick<br \/>\napproach, with the carrot being the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).<br \/>\nThe IRA has multiple components supporting the path to<br \/>\ndecarbonization in the U.S.; the most critical to the automotive<br \/>\nindustry are the consumer and manufacturer credits for purchase and<br \/>\nproduction of ZEV vehicles. Putting these two together could<br \/>\nrepresent an average stimulus of $12,090 for ZEVs that meet all<br \/>\nrequirements, assuming a full $7,500 consumer credit and a $4,590<br \/>\nmanufacturer credit ($45 per kW on the average US battery size of<br \/>\n102 kW for 2022).<\/p>\n<p >This approach triggered unparalleled investment for the<br \/>\nexpansion of ZEV capacity. OEMs assumed if they built them (EVs)<br \/>\nthey (consumers) would come. It was only natural to assume that the<br \/>\nstrong consumer demand for EVs seen in California and many other<br \/>\nWest Coast markets was going to expand across the country if IRA<br \/>\nfunds helped to close the gap in price between ZEVs and legacy<br \/>\nInternal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles. OEMs have worked very<br \/>\nhard to match the success Tesla is having in these markets,<br \/>\nespecially after the EV juggernaut&#39;s Model Y was the third<br \/>\ntop-selling light vehicle last year. The response from OEMs is a<br \/>\npipeline of over 30 different new EV models due in 2024 and more<br \/>\nthan 200 models due by 2028, according to current forecasts.<\/p>\n<p ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0424\/launches_290420241703185.jpg\" alt=\"Vehicle Launches Number of Models\" width=\"800\" height=\"479\" \/><\/p>\n<p >To understand consumer behavior and mindset, S&amp;amp;P Global<br \/>\nMobility runs proprietary surveys on a regular basis, one of which<br \/>\nmeasures EV consumer sentiment. This research essentially<br \/>\nrecognizes the willingness of consumers to buy EVs. Our 2023 survey<br \/>\nshowed a 67-percent willingness to consider buying an EV vehicle,<br \/>\nthough a 19-percentage-point decline relative to the same survey in<br \/>\n2021 when EV excitement was cresting in the middle of the<br \/>\ninventory\/semiconductor crisis. Our 2023 survey indicates the<br \/>\nprimary concerns consumers had in mind were pricing, range and<br \/>\ncharging.<\/p>\n<p ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0424\/openness-to-purchasing-electric-or-hybrid_290420241703185.jpg\" alt=\"Openness to Purchasing Electric or Hybrid\" width=\"800\" height=\"490\" \/><\/p>\n<p >This same survey shows that consumers prefer a gentler<br \/>\ntransition towards electrification\u2014more of an evolution than<br \/>\nrevolution. Here, hybrids are clearly top of mind to consumers<br \/>\nwhere the need to change is not as drastic\u2014essentially<br \/>\nremaining on the same fueling system they are familiar with. It has<br \/>\nonly been in recent months that we have seen some OEMs assimilate<br \/>\nthis reality and reconsider their pathway to electrification.<\/p>\n<p >The electrification roadmap will be primarily dependent on the<br \/>\ntriangulation of these three elements: pricing of EVs, meeting<br \/>\nregulatory requirements from the government, and OEMs&#39; creativity<br \/>\nand flexibility to adjust their showroom portfolios to best match<br \/>\nthese two. Some OEMs are realigning strategies to create a bridge<br \/>\nin the shape of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and Plug-in Hybrid<br \/>\nElectric Vehicles (PHEV) to address consumer concerns of pricing,<br \/>\nrange, and charging for EVs. This comes after traditional OEMs are<br \/>\nnow publicly stating that price parity for EVs won&#39;t be as easy as<br \/>\noriginally envisioned and have gone back to the drawing board to<br \/>\nlook for alternate roadmaps to appease consumer hesitation while<br \/>\nremaining good corporate citizens.<\/p>\n<p >Historically the law of the land has revolved around<br \/>\nmiles-per-gallon and meeting the regulatory requirement has been no<br \/>\nsmall feat over the last two decades as it required an average 5%<br \/>\nimprovement in efficiency year-over-year. In response to lowering<br \/>\ncarbon emissions in the US, the Biden administration has added new<br \/>\ndimensions to that equation by proposing a revised setting of e-MPG<br \/>\n(equivalent MPG rating for EVs and PHEVs) and the requirement to<br \/>\nalso reduce emissions of other pollutants. From a numeric<br \/>\nstandpoint, if an EV used to get a 350 e-MPG rating the revision to<br \/>\nthe e-MPG calculation means that same vehicle will only be getting<br \/>\nroughly 125 e-MPG rating in coming years.<\/p>\n<p >To most, this is already a very tall order to meet, but again,<br \/>\ntimes are very fluid. The roadmap of electrification becomes even<br \/>\nmore challenging as it may have to accommodate for a long list of<br \/>\nwhat-ifs: US presidential elections, cost of raw materials, a<br \/>\nrevision of USMCA, or other factors. This accommodation and<br \/>\nflexibility demand that OEMs respond quickly and, in the process,<br \/>\nshift their entire value chain at similar speed, starting with<br \/>\nsuppliers, raw material providers, and logistics operators as<br \/>\nwell.<\/p>\n<p >The writing of this thrilling chapter of the automotive history<br \/>\nbook as OEMs are asked to align pricing, regulation, and portfolios<br \/>\nwill not be black and white, but a true prism of colors. Lack of<br \/>\naction is certainly not an option; the OEM ships have left the<br \/>\nports in search of a new carbon-free world and are navigating<br \/>\nuncharted consumer waters and the perils that come along with such<br \/>\nan altruistic endeavor.<\/p>\n<p >Rest assured, we at S&amp;amp;P Global Mobility look forward to<br \/>\nhelping the industry best chart these waters to anticipate the<br \/>\nrough seas and storms ahead.<\/p>\n<p >\n&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p ><strong>Dive deeper into these mobility insights:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p ><a class=\"primary-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/topic\/electric-vehicle-trends.html\"  rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Explore More Electric<br \/>\nVehicle Trends<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p ><a class=\"primary-button\" 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factors to<br \/>\nalign their EV production with government regulations and consumer<br \/>\ndemand.Insights in this Newsletter &amp;amp; Podcast:The pathway to electrification: from&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2104,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[3267],"tags":[61,122,127,129,124,128,125,132,131,133,126,130,123,66,94,88,97,56,64,65,60,3344,3351,3357,3360,3335,3340,3362,112,3353,40,75,95,3350,3352,3356,3343,3359,3339,3345,3334,3341,104,3354,33,120,3358,3349,3337,3348,105,101,98,115,30,29,41,86,3342,3361,70,69,68,72,71,26,118,108,87,3355,46,55,48,52,54,51,50,83,3338,62,58,57,3336,109,35,3346,59,63,85,79,82,96,80,27,81,114,44,42,43,45,38,39,110,117,100,111,116,3300,73,89,90,92,91,93,84,78,37,102,34,36,77,67,74,99,113,3347,119,28,121,32,47,49,53,103,31,76],"class_list":["post-121787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-car-or-automobile","tag-airpods","tag-anime","tag-anime-characters","tag-anime-cosplay","tag-anime-edits","tag-anime-merchandise","tag-anime-movies","tag-anime-news","tag-anime-recommendations","tag-anime-reviews","tag-anime-series","tag-anime-streaming","tag-animes","tag-app-store","tag-app-store-samsung","tag-appgallery","tag-appgallery-oneplus","tag-apple","tag-apple-music","tag-apple-tv","tag-apple-watch","tag-auto-financing-guide","tag-automobile-industry-news","tag-automobile-laws-and-regulations","tag-automobile-shows-and-expos","tag-automobile-specifications","tag-automobile-technology","tag-autonomous-vehicles","tag-bbc-sport","tag-best-cars-for-long-drives","tag-best-mobile-games","tag-bixby","tag-bixby-xiaomi","tag-car-accessories","tag-car-comparison","tag-car-customization-ideas","tag-car-insurance-advice","tag-car-interior-design-ideas","tag-car-maintenance-tips","tag-car-resale-value","tag-car-reviews","tag-car-safety-features","tag-champions-league","tag-city-cars","tag-cyberpunk","tag-cyberpunk-2077","tag-driving-tips-and-tricks","tag-eco-friendly-cars","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-family-cars","tag-fantasy-football","tag-fifa","tag-football","tag-formula-1","tag-fortnite","tag-free-fire","tag-free-mobile-games","tag-freebuds-pro","tag-fuel-efficiency-tips","tag-future-of-automobiles","tag-galaxy-a52","tag-galaxy-note-20","tag-galaxy-s21","tag-galaxy-watch-4","tag-galaxy-z-fold-3","tag-game","tag-games","tag-golf","tag-harmonyos","tag-highway-cars","tag-how-to-backup-iphone","tag-how-to-factory-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-restore-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-5","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-6","tag-huawei","tag-hybrid-cars","tag-ios","tag-ipad","tag-iphone","tag-latest-car-models","tag-live-soccer","tag-lol","tag-luxury-cars","tag-macbook","tag-macos","tag-mate-40-pro","tag-mi-11-lite","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p-huawei","tag-mi-smart-band-6","tag-minecraft","tag-miui","tag-mlb-scores","tag-mobile-game-design","tag-mobile-game-development","tag-mobile-game-marketing","tag-mobile-game-monetization","tag-mobile-games","tag-mobile-gaming","tag-nba-scores","tag-nba-standings","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-scores","tag-nhl-scores","tag-off-road-vehicles","tag-one-ui","tag-oneplus","tag-oneplus-9-pro","tag-oneplus-buds-pro","tag-oneplus-nord-ce-5g","tag-oxygenos","tag-p40-pro-plus","tag-poco-x3-pro","tag-pokemon","tag-premier-league","tag-pubg","tag-pubg-mobile","tag-redmi-note-10-pro","tag-samsung","tag-samsung-pay","tag-soccer","tag-sports","tag-sports-cars","tag-steam","tag-steeam","tag-top-10-anime","tag-valorant","tag-when-do-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-does-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-is-the-iphone-7-coming-out","tag-world-cup","tag-xbox-series-x","tag-xiaomi"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2104"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=121787"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/121787\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=121787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":tru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