{"id":12521,"date":"2023-07-26T13:29:36","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T12:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/fuel-for-thought-the-commercial-vehicle-fleet-accelerates.html"},"modified":"2023-07-26T13:29:36","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T12:29:36","slug":"fuel-for-thought-the-commercial-vehicle-fleet-accelerates-toward-zev-adoption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/26\/fuel-for-thought-the-commercial-vehicle-fleet-accelerates-toward-zev-adoption\/","title":{"rendered":"Fuel for Thought: The commercial vehicle fleet accelerates toward ZEV adoption"},"content":{"rendered":"

LISTEN TO A PODCAST ON THIS TOPIC
\nWITH S&amp;P GLOBAL MOBILITY EXPERTS<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The projected curve in tractor-trailer
\nelectrification in the US is getting steeper, but a future of
\nroadways filled with EV and hydrogen big rigs is still strewn with
\npotholes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tougher emissions regulations arriving in 2030,
\nemerging technological developments, and improvements in the ZEV
\nmedium- and heavy-truck cost picture \u2012 with hydrogen in particular
\n\u2012 have sharply increased the potential for adoption of ZEV or
\nnear-ZEV commercial vehicles.<\/p>\n

In weighing the factors involved in
\nimplementing a ZEV big-rig fleet, S&amp;P Global Mobility now
\nforecasts medium-term ZEV commercial vehicle registrations in the
\nUnited States higher than ever before. Expectations for the end of
\nthe decade now reach nearly 140,000 annual new registrations of ZEV
\ntrucks starting in 2030, an expected share of more than 25% of the
\nClass 4-8 medium- and heavy-duty truck market.<\/p>\n

That said, for all the pronouncements of a
\nfuture of battery-powered Tesla Semis and hydrogen-fueled Nikolas,
\nserious impediments remain on the road to mass adoption.<\/p>\n

Compared to previous forecasts, S&amp;P Global
\nMobility's most recent projection represents higher volumes in unit
\nterms, as well as a more rapid expected transition away from
\nestablished internal combustion engine (ICE) technologies.
\nExpressed in terms of the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
\nforecast ZEV registrations, the pace of change has risen from 70%
\nper year to 109% in just two forecast rounds. This steeper expected
\nadoption curve is due to more than just greater optimism about
\nprospects for 2030.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Regulatory push<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bullishness for 2030 has grown alongside
\nincreasingly ambitious government regulations and supports \u2012
\nincluding the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), proposed changes to
\nGreenhouse Gas (GHG) Phase 2 standards, and proposed GHG Phase 3
\nstandards for MY 2028-2032 from EPA\/NHTSA.<\/p>\n

The so-called GHG Phase 3 standards reveal a
\nbold initiative to push the pace of change in the industry \u2012
\ndrastically reducing allowable CO2 emissions beyond the 2028
\nthreshold foreseen in Phase 2 \u2012 to include reopening and tightening
\nalready-published goals for model year 2027 diesel engines. By MY
\n2032, the proposed GHG phase 3 regulations will mandate an
\nincremental OEM fleet average emissions reduction of 37% in the
\nmedium-duty truck (MDT, including Class 2b &amp; 3) and 27% in the
\nheavy-duty truck (HDT, Class 8) segments, compared to the final
\n2027 year of GHG Phase 2 standards.<\/p>\n

Regulatory bodies are wielding tax credit and
\nvoucher carrots as well as legal sticks to achieve their emissions
\ntargets. For instance, the 30% of value (up to $40,000) incentive
\nwritten into the IRA (in the form of a tax credit) for businesses
\nand tax-exempt organizations that buy a qualified commercial clean
\nvehicle. In California, proposed incentives for a Class 8 hydrogen
\nfuel-cell tractor under the Hybrid and Zero Emission Truck and Bus
\nVoucher Incentive Project (HVIP) could reach as high as $240,000
\nfor a fuel cell electric truck.<\/p>\n

These IRA incentives also apply to the cost
\nside \u2012 especially for hydrogen-powered vehicles \u2012 in that
\nincentives can shape the potential cost curve for refueling some
\nZEV vehicles. Easing that cost burden would help support the
\ninitial steep capital expense of the two chief hydrogen propulsion
\ntechnologies \u2012 hydrogen internal combustion (H2 ICE) and hydrogen
\nfuel cell electric propulsion (FCEV) \u2012 in which fuel costs loom
\nlarge as a share of cost of ownership.<\/p>\n

But most of the technology forcing mandates are
\nsticks \u2012 such as the implementation of Tier 4 emissions for light
\ncommercial vehicles and the Advanced Clean Truck and Advanced Clean
\nFleets legislation affecting California and at least six of the
\nstates that follow the California Air Resource Board (CARB)
\nmandates.<\/p>\n

The Advanced Clean Trucks rule requires
\nmanufacturers who sell medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles (Classes
\n4-8) to sell an increasing proportion of zero emissions commercial
\nvehicles from 2024-2035. A partner bill, the Advanced Clean Fleets
\nrule, is working its way through the rulemaking process. This rule
\nplaces requirements on fleets that meet certain characteristics to
\nalso have an increasing percentage of zero emissions commercial
\nvehicles in their fleets. This rule also goes into effect in 2024.
\nAnd by the end of 2023, California also is enacting strict rules
\nfor the types of drayage trucks allowed to idle at intermodal
\nseaports and railyards.<\/p>\n

Getting up to speed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the regulatory push, recent market
\nperformance for ZEV MHCVs has been muted, with new registrations of
\nZEV big rigs so far this year below expectations. While US
\nregistration volumes of Class 4-8 ZEVs in the first four months of
\n2023 had an impressive-sounding 200% year-over-year increase,
\nsupported by the registrations of the first trucks from Nikola and
\nTesla, it represented barely 1,100 units and amounted to just 0.6%
\nof new vehicle registration volume \u2012 and was 44% lower than
\nforecast.<\/p>\n

Alongside uncertainty and cost, headwinds have
\nincluded the same supply-chain issues that have buffeted the
\nproduction of traditional diesel trucks and buses. Among them,
\nmanufacturers have counted lengthy wait times to receive parts;
\ninability to source sufficient parts; difficulties finding workers
\nand running full schedules; and elevated input material prices.<\/p>\n

In some ways, these problems have been even
\nmore of a challenge for dedicated ZEV startups, which have
\ntypically tighter capital, challenging cash burns, steeper
\nborrowing rates in the current inflationary cycle, and lower
\nvolumes (and thus revenue) to weather a supply-shortage storm,
\ncompared to larger, relatively more established makers.<\/p>\n

In looking at market expectations from just six
\nmonths ago, delays in introductions of new Class 4-8 ZEVs have
\nrepresented about a quarter of all known or suspected
\nstart-of-production delays for truck and buses overall \u2012 well above
\nthe ZEV share of the market.<\/p>\n

Dodging potholes<\/strong><\/p>\n

The current high price of hydrogen fuel,
\nsignificantly higher than diesel, has been prohibitive for most
\nwould-be hydrogen vehicle buyers. Even in the case of the
\ntheoretically affordable acquisition cost of an H2 ICE truck,
\nprospective fuel costs have raised questions about the benefits
\ncompared to other propulsion technologies. With the IRA raising the
\npossibility of hydrogen fuel cost dropping sharply, maybe even to
\nas low as the diesel gallon equivalent, the opportunities for
\nhydrogen become brighter, though still not certain. Indeed, more
\nthan two-thirds of the increase in expected 2030 new ZEV truck and
\nbus volumes comes from anticipated hydrogen truck and bus fuel
\nprice declines.<\/p>\n

That said, improved prospects for H2 ICE
\ndepends on H2 ICE products available for purchase. The current
\nforecast from S&amp;P Global Mobility includes seven H2 ICE truck
\nmodels, all expected in Class 8. This is up from just three models
\nforecast this time a year ago.<\/p>\n

Over the next two decades, battery electric
\ntrucks and fuel-cell electric trucks are expected to undergo
\nsignificant advancements \u2012 paving the way for increased efficiency,
\nreduced costs, and wider market adoption. It is our expectation
\nthat, with next-generation battery technology, trucks will see
\nimproved energy density and longer-range capabilities, two very
\nimportant metrics for truck operations.<\/p>\n

Similarly, innovations in hydrogen-related
\ntechnologies are anticipated to bring longer range and improved
\ndurability \u2012 making them more viable for widespread adoption. As
\nthese technologies continue to mature, economies of scale will
\ndrive down production costs, leading to electric trucks becoming
\nmore competitively priced.<\/p>\n

Overall, the main takeaway is that the industry
\nis at the early stages of innovation of this technology. Improved
\ncapabilities as well as reduced cost will only improve their
\ncompetitiveness and popularity of heavy-duty electrified
\nvehicles.<\/p>\n

Demand-side pledges<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are also indirect factors that are
\nneither the result of carrot nor stick. For example, a number of
\ncompanies \u2012 some controlling very large fleets of commercial
\nvehicles \u2012 have made aggressive pledges towards the achievement of
\ncarbon neutrality at a corporate level.<\/p>\n

For many of these fleets, transportation of
\ngoods is among the largest contributors to their corporate carbon
\nfootprint. For them, the reduction of carbon emissions from the
\ncommercial vehicles they control is one of the most impactful
\nlevers they can pull. PepsiCo has, as a corporation, pledged to be
\ncarbon neutral by 2040 \u2012 witness their reported purchase of Tesla
\nClass 8 Semis. PepsiCo has taken delivery of 54 Tesla Semis to
\ndate, at about $450,000 each.<\/p>\n

PepsiCo is not alone. A number of consumer
\ngoods companies have made similar pledges to achieve carbon
\nneutrality by 2040 or 2050. For many of these companies, reducing
\ntransportation-based carbon emissions offers a quicker and less
\ncapital-intensive approach to reducing carbon footprint when
\ncompared to re-engineering production processes.<\/p>\n

Similarly, some of the larger consumer goods
\ntransport companies have also made carbon neutrality pledges with
\nintent to fulfill their pledges via the aggressive purchase of
\nZEVs, some of them also in the “light” commercial vehicle category.
\nAmazon has plans for a total of 100,000 custom electric
\nneighborhood delivery vehicles from Rivian by 2030, while FedEx has
\ncommitted to carbon-neutrality by 2040, with all parcel pickup and
\ndelivery vehicles being zero emissions by that date.<\/p>\n

What needs to be done<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the near-term, regulation, proclamation, and
\nacquisition are not yet in alignment, and until they are, moving
\ntoward a zero-emission intermodal future faces roadblocks.<\/p>\n

In today's political environment, it seems
\nlikely that regulators will continue to aim ever higher \u2012
\nregardless of real-world economic realities. Over time, this vision
\nwill be supported and re-adjusted by business conditions and cost
\nrealities on the ground \u2012 including slower-than-expected early ZEV
\ncommercial vehicle adoption, availability of recharging\/refueling
\nnetworks, as well as unexpected technology “Eureka!” moments and
\nsubsequent price changes.<\/p>\n

But slow adoption now could also mean slower
\nadoption in the medium term, as large-scale learnings are not
\nachieved and not shared. Lower numbers early on will also make it
\nmore difficult for disruptor brands in the space to become and
\nremain financially viable, casting further doubt on a rapid
\ninflection point early on.<\/p>\n

\n————————————————————–<\/p>\n

Dive deeper into these mobility insights:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Commercial Vehicle Forecast: MDHD
\ntruck market coasts through 2024<\/a><\/p>\n

Supply shortages and new electric
\nvehicle registrations for US commercial vehicles<\/a><\/p>\n

Learn more about Medium &amp; Heavy
\nCommercial Vehicle Industry Forecast<\/a><\/p>\n

Hydrogen: In it for the long
\nhaul<\/a><\/p>\n

Can Brazil's commercial truck fleet
\nturn electric?<\/a><\/p>\n

Learn more about Commercial Vehicle
\ninsights and intelligence<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\n

Commercials Cooperation Advertisements:<\/b><\/h2>\r\n


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SalesExecutive@ITSec.vip<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

LISTEN TO A PODCAST ON THIS TOPIC
\nWITH S&amp;P GLOBAL MOBILITY EXPERTSThe projected curve in tractor-trailer
\nelectrification in the US is getting steeper, but a future of
\nroadways filled with EV and hydrogen big rigs is still strewn with
\npotholes.T…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":507,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[3267],"tags":[61,122,127,129,124,128,125,132,131,133,126,130,123,66,94,88,97,56,64,65,60,3344,3351,3357,3360,3335,3340,3362,112,3353,40,75,95,3350,3352,3356,3343,3359,3339,3345,3334,3341,104,3354,33,120,3358,3349,3337,3348,105,101,98,115,30,29,41,86,3342,3361,70,69,68,72,71,26,118,108,87,3355,46,55,48,52,54,51,50,83,3338,62,58,57,3336,109,35,3346,59,63,85,79,82,96,80,27,81,114,44,42,43,45,38,39,110,117,100,111,116,3300,73,89,90,92,91,93,84,78,37,102,34,36,77,67,74,99,113,3347,119,28,121,32,47,49,53,103,31,76],"class_list":["post-12521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-car-or-automobile","tag-airpods","tag-anime","tag-anime-characters","tag-anime-cosplay","tag-anime-edits","tag-anime-merchandise","tag-anime-movies","tag-anime-news","tag-anime-recommendations","tag-anime-reviews","tag-anime-series","tag-anime-streaming","tag-animes","tag-app-store","tag-app-store-samsung","tag-appgallery","tag-appgallery-oneplus","tag-apple","tag-apple-music","tag-apple-tv","tag-apple-watch","tag-auto-financing-guide","tag-automobile-industry-news","tag-automobile-laws-and-regulations","tag-automobile-shows-and-expos","tag-automobile-specifications","tag-automobile-technology","tag-autonomous-vehicles","tag-bbc-sport","tag-best-cars-for-long-drives","tag-best-mobile-games","tag-bixby","tag-bixby-xiaomi","tag-car-accessories","tag-car-comparison","tag-car-customization-ideas","tag-car-insurance-advice","tag-car-interior-design-ideas","tag-car-maintenance-tips","tag-car-resale-value","tag-car-reviews","tag-car-safety-features","tag-champions-league","tag-city-cars","tag-cyberpunk","tag-cyberpunk-2077","tag-driving-tips-and-tricks","tag-eco-friendly-cars","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-family-cars","tag-fantasy-football","tag-fifa","tag-football","tag-formula-1","tag-fortnite","tag-free-fire","tag-free-mobile-games","tag-freebuds-pro","tag-fuel-efficiency-tips","tag-future-of-automobiles","tag-galaxy-a52","tag-galaxy-note-20","tag-galaxy-s21","tag-galaxy-watch-4","tag-galaxy-z-fold-3","tag-game","tag-games","tag-golf","tag-harmonyos","tag-highway-cars","tag-how-to-backup-iphone","tag-how-to-factory-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-restore-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-5","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-6","tag-huawei","tag-hybrid-cars","tag-ios","tag-ipad","tag-iphone","tag-latest-car-models","tag-live-soccer","tag-lol","tag-luxury-cars","tag-macbook","tag-macos","tag-mate-40-pro","tag-mi-11-lite","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p-huawei","tag-mi-smart-band-6","tag-minecraft","tag-miui","tag-mlb-scores","tag-mobile-game-design","tag-mobile-game-development","tag-mobile-game-marketing","tag-mobile-game-monetization","tag-mobile-games","tag-mobile-gaming","tag-nba-scores","tag-nba-standings","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-scores","tag-nhl-scores","tag-off-road-vehicles","tag-one-ui","tag-oneplus","tag-oneplus-9-pro","tag-oneplus-buds-pro","tag-oneplus-nord-ce-5g","tag-oxygenos","tag-p40-pro-plus","tag-poco-x3-pro","tag-pokemon","tag-premier-league","tag-pubg","tag-pubg-mobile","tag-redmi-note-10-pro","tag-samsung","tag-samsung-pay","tag-soccer","tag-sports","tag-sports-cars","tag-steam","tag-steeam","tag-top-10-anime","tag-valorant","tag-when-do-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-does-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-is-the-iphone-7-coming-out","tag-world-cup","tag-xbox-series-x","tag-xiaomi"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/507"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12522,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12521\/revisions\/12522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"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