\nprovides daily analysis of global automotive news and events,
\nproviding our clients timely context and impact analysis for
\nnavigating the fast-moving industry. Behind the Headlines offers a
\nbi-weekly dive into the most recent top stories.<\/em><\/p>\n
New BEV battery capacity comes online in
\nAsia-Pacific<\/strong><\/h2>\nInconsistent demand growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs)
\nin 2024 is increasingly expected to continue in 2025. As automakers
\nbalance capital expenditure and consumer demand, a number of
\nbattery projects are being delayed and revised, while others are
\nmoving full steam ahead.<\/p>\n
On the BEV battery side, a plant between Hyundai Motor and LG
\nEnergy Solution (LGES) has started production in Indonesia. It is
\nthe first battery cell plant in the country, with annual capacity
\nof 10 GWh of battery cells and supported by a US$1.1 billion
\ninvestment announced in 2021.<\/p>\n
On the vehicle assembly side, GAC Aion, a new energy vehicle
\nsubsidiary of GAC Group, has inaugurated a new plant in Thailand.
\nThat plant has annual capacity of 50,000 units and saw US$65
\nmillion invested. The GAC Aion plant is the second of its kind to
\nbe opened in Thailand this month; BYD's plant opened in early July
\nwith capacity for 150,000 new-energy vehicles each year.<\/p>\n
VinFast has also started construction on a new plant in
\nIndonesia, aimed at building right-hand drive versions of the VF 3,
\nVF 5, VF 6 and VF 7 vehicles for the Indonesian market; this plant
\nis planned to have 50,000-unit annual capacity.<\/p>\n
In North America, battery projects are delayed and
\nrevised<\/strong><\/h2>\nMeanwhile, on the other side of the world, Ford and GM have
\nslowed ramp-up of their BEV production capacity increases. This
\nslowdown is having an impact on North American manufacturing
\ninvestments, while VinFast is finding that breaking into the US is
\nmore difficult than expected.<\/p>\n
After GM's CEO confirmed the company will not reach the target
\nfor 1 million units of installed BEV capacity in 2026, LGES
\nindicated it will slow construction on a new battery cell plant in
\nMichigan. LGES said that it will adjust the speed of its overall
\ninvestments and is looking for ways to ensure its plants are
\nflexible, comments which suggest other changes could be made. The
\nGM-LGES Michigan plant is an Ultium Cells LLC joint venture with
\nGM, the third between the two in the US.<\/p>\n
Ford has also announced another shift in its North American
\nmanufacturing plans. Instead of producing the planned three-row BEV
\nutilities for the Ford and Lincoln brands at its Oakville, Ontario
\n(Canada), plant, Ford will start building the current-generation
\nF-Series Super Duty truck there in 2025. As soon as 2026, the next
\ngeneration will be produced there as well. Ford committed to
\nelectrified solutions for the next Super Duty, though stopped short
\nof committing to BEV production at Oakville.<\/p>\n
Announcing global sales of 21,747 vehicles in the second quarter
\nof 2024, VinFast reduced its guidance for 2024 full-year sales from
\n100,000 units to only 80,000 units. VinFast also delayed its first
\nUS BEV plant to 2028; this is the second delay for a plant which
\nwas initially meant to see production start in July 2024.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Turkey gets BYD investment and creates
\npotential hedge against EU tariffs<\/strong><\/h2>\nTurkey's government announced that it will not impose tariffs on
\nChinese automakers who invest locally, after imposing a 40% tariff
\non mainland Chinese passenger car imports. US presidential
\ncandidate and former President Donald Trump has said that he might
\nconsider a similar policy if he wins the US election in November
\n2024.<\/p>\n
In early July BYD reached an agreement with Turkey to invest
\nUS$1 billion into vehicle production there. SAIC is also said to be
\nin discussions to begin production in Turkey, while Chery said in
\nan earlier statement, “We are working intensively on the
\nfeasibility analysis of factory construction in Turkey and
\nproduction in Turkey together with the relevant Ministries. We are
\nstriving to be able to produce in Turkey as soon as possible.” Any
\nfacility constructed in Turkey could potentially circumvent tariffs
\nimposed by European Union member states.<\/p>\n
S&P Global Mobility sees BEV production reaching 59%
\nof light-vehicle production \u2014 in 2036<\/strong><\/p>\nThe S&P Global Mobility June 2024 light vehicle production
\nforecast sees production of BEVs continuing at a fairly aggressive
\nupward slope, even with consumer hesitation in 2024. Global
\nlight-vehicle BEV production is expected to overtake internal
\ncombustion engine (ICE) production in 2029.<\/p>\n
By 2036, we see global BEV production at just 59% of all
\nlight-vehicle production. However, we also see the potential for
\nGermany with 97% of its light-vehicle production having shifted to
\nBEVs by then.<\/p>\n
In Mainland China, which will continue to be the highest-volume
\nproducer of BEVs, only about 64% of light-vehicle production is
\nforecast to be BEVs by 2036. Mainland China's drive toward new
\nenergy vehicles (NEV) as opposed to a laser-focus on BEVs leaves
\nmore room for solutions like plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and
\nrange-extended electric (REX) vehicle solutions; those are forecast
\nto see, roughly, respective 17% and 7% of mainland China
\nlight-vehicle production in 2036.<\/p>\n
The US is expected to be the third-highest BEV producer in 2036;
\nwe forecast that 75% of light-vehicle production could be BEVs by
\nthat year. Indonesia and Thailand are long-standing
\nvehicle-producing countries, with opportunity for both the home
\nmarket and for exports. Still, a BEV transition is expected to take
\na little longer there; in 2036, we forecast Thailand BEV production
\nat about 50% of the country's output. In Indonesia we see BEV
\noutput reaching 26% of production.<\/p>\n
Though at this point, a shift to BEV-dominant vehicle production
\nand sales is assumed to be a “when” rather than an “if” question,
\nwe will continue to see OEMs and suppliers revising immediate plans
\nas they balance the need to have capacity to support the shift,
\nwhile not having too much too soon.<\/p>\n
![\"Global](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0724\/global-light-vehicle-production-by-fuel-type_260720241449383.png\")
<\/p>\n
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\r\n
\nin 2024 is increasingly expected to continue in 2025. As automakers
\nbalance capital expenditure and consumer demand, a number of
\nbattery projects are being delayed and revised, while others are
\nmoving full steam ahead.<\/p>\n
\nEnergy Solution (LGES) has started production in Indonesia. It is
\nthe first battery cell plant in the country, with annual capacity
\nof 10 GWh of battery cells and supported by a US$1.1 billion
\ninvestment announced in 2021.<\/p>\n
\nsubsidiary of GAC Group, has inaugurated a new plant in Thailand.
\nThat plant has annual capacity of 50,000 units and saw US$65
\nmillion invested. The GAC Aion plant is the second of its kind to
\nbe opened in Thailand this month; BYD's plant opened in early July
\nwith capacity for 150,000 new-energy vehicles each year.<\/p>\n
\nIndonesia, aimed at building right-hand drive versions of the VF 3,
\nVF 5, VF 6 and VF 7 vehicles for the Indonesian market; this plant
\nis planned to have 50,000-unit annual capacity.<\/p>\n
\nrevised<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Ford and GM have
\nslowed ramp-up of their BEV production capacity increases. This
\nslowdown is having an impact on North American manufacturing
\ninvestments, while VinFast is finding that breaking into the US is
\nmore difficult than expected.<\/p>\n
After GM's CEO confirmed the company will not reach the target
\nfor 1 million units of installed BEV capacity in 2026, LGES
\nindicated it will slow construction on a new battery cell plant in
\nMichigan. LGES said that it will adjust the speed of its overall
\ninvestments and is looking for ways to ensure its plants are
\nflexible, comments which suggest other changes could be made. The
\nGM-LGES Michigan plant is an Ultium Cells LLC joint venture with
\nGM, the third between the two in the US.<\/p>\n
Ford has also announced another shift in its North American
\nmanufacturing plans. Instead of producing the planned three-row BEV
\nutilities for the Ford and Lincoln brands at its Oakville, Ontario
\n(Canada), plant, Ford will start building the current-generation
\nF-Series Super Duty truck there in 2025. As soon as 2026, the next
\ngeneration will be produced there as well. Ford committed to
\nelectrified solutions for the next Super Duty, though stopped short
\nof committing to BEV production at Oakville.<\/p>\n
Announcing global sales of 21,747 vehicles in the second quarter
\nof 2024, VinFast reduced its guidance for 2024 full-year sales from
\n100,000 units to only 80,000 units. VinFast also delayed its first
\nUS BEV plant to 2028; this is the second delay for a plant which
\nwas initially meant to see production start in July 2024.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Turkey gets BYD investment and creates
\npotential hedge against EU tariffs<\/strong><\/h2>\nTurkey's government announced that it will not impose tariffs on
\nChinese automakers who invest locally, after imposing a 40% tariff
\non mainland Chinese passenger car imports. US presidential
\ncandidate and former President Donald Trump has said that he might
\nconsider a similar policy if he wins the US election in November
\n2024.<\/p>\n
In early July BYD reached an agreement with Turkey to invest
\nUS$1 billion into vehicle production there. SAIC is also said to be
\nin discussions to begin production in Turkey, while Chery said in
\nan earlier statement, “We are working intensively on the
\nfeasibility analysis of factory construction in Turkey and
\nproduction in Turkey together with the relevant Ministries. We are
\nstriving to be able to produce in Turkey as soon as possible.” Any
\nfacility constructed in Turkey could potentially circumvent tariffs
\nimposed by European Union member states.<\/p>\n
S&P Global Mobility sees BEV production reaching 59%
\nof light-vehicle production \u2014 in 2036<\/strong><\/p>\nThe S&P Global Mobility June 2024 light vehicle production
\nforecast sees production of BEVs continuing at a fairly aggressive
\nupward slope, even with consumer hesitation in 2024. Global
\nlight-vehicle BEV production is expected to overtake internal
\ncombustion engine (ICE) production in 2029.<\/p>\n
By 2036, we see global BEV production at just 59% of all
\nlight-vehicle production. However, we also see the potential for
\nGermany with 97% of its light-vehicle production having shifted to
\nBEVs by then.<\/p>\n
In Mainland China, which will continue to be the highest-volume
\nproducer of BEVs, only about 64% of light-vehicle production is
\nforecast to be BEVs by 2036. Mainland China's drive toward new
\nenergy vehicles (NEV) as opposed to a laser-focus on BEVs leaves
\nmore room for solutions like plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and
\nrange-extended electric (REX) vehicle solutions; those are forecast
\nto see, roughly, respective 17% and 7% of mainland China
\nlight-vehicle production in 2036.<\/p>\n
The US is expected to be the third-highest BEV producer in 2036;
\nwe forecast that 75% of light-vehicle production could be BEVs by
\nthat year. Indonesia and Thailand are long-standing
\nvehicle-producing countries, with opportunity for both the home
\nmarket and for exports. Still, a BEV transition is expected to take
\na little longer there; in 2036, we forecast Thailand BEV production
\nat about 50% of the country's output. In Indonesia we see BEV
\noutput reaching 26% of production.<\/p>\n
Though at this point, a shift to BEV-dominant vehicle production
\nand sales is assumed to be a “when” rather than an “if” question,
\nwe will continue to see OEMs and suppliers revising immediate plans
\nas they balance the need to have capacity to support the shift,
\nwhile not having too much too soon.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\nGet Free Trial of AutoIntelligence<\/a>.<\/p>\n\nCommercials Cooperation Advertisements:<\/b><\/h2>\r\n
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\r\nwww.Sraa.com.hk<\/a>
\r\n
\nChinese automakers who invest locally, after imposing a 40% tariff
\non mainland Chinese passenger car imports. US presidential
\ncandidate and former President Donald Trump has said that he might
\nconsider a similar policy if he wins the US election in November
\n2024.<\/p>\n
\nUS$1 billion into vehicle production there. SAIC is also said to be
\nin discussions to begin production in Turkey, while Chery said in
\nan earlier statement, “We are working intensively on the
\nfeasibility analysis of factory construction in Turkey and
\nproduction in Turkey together with the relevant Ministries. We are
\nstriving to be able to produce in Turkey as soon as possible.” Any
\nfacility constructed in Turkey could potentially circumvent tariffs
\nimposed by European Union member states.<\/p>\n
\nof light-vehicle production \u2014 in 2036<\/strong><\/p>\n
The S&P Global Mobility June 2024 light vehicle production
\nforecast sees production of BEVs continuing at a fairly aggressive
\nupward slope, even with consumer hesitation in 2024. Global
\nlight-vehicle BEV production is expected to overtake internal
\ncombustion engine (ICE) production in 2029.<\/p>\n
By 2036, we see global BEV production at just 59% of all
\nlight-vehicle production. However, we also see the potential for
\nGermany with 97% of its light-vehicle production having shifted to
\nBEVs by then.<\/p>\n
In Mainland China, which will continue to be the highest-volume
\nproducer of BEVs, only about 64% of light-vehicle production is
\nforecast to be BEVs by 2036. Mainland China's drive toward new
\nenergy vehicles (NEV) as opposed to a laser-focus on BEVs leaves
\nmore room for solutions like plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and
\nrange-extended electric (REX) vehicle solutions; those are forecast
\nto see, roughly, respective 17% and 7% of mainland China
\nlight-vehicle production in 2036.<\/p>\n
The US is expected to be the third-highest BEV producer in 2036;
\nwe forecast that 75% of light-vehicle production could be BEVs by
\nthat year. Indonesia and Thailand are long-standing
\nvehicle-producing countries, with opportunity for both the home
\nmarket and for exports. Still, a BEV transition is expected to take
\na little longer there; in 2036, we forecast Thailand BEV production
\nat about 50% of the country's output. In Indonesia we see BEV
\noutput reaching 26% of production.<\/p>\n
Though at this point, a shift to BEV-dominant vehicle production
\nand sales is assumed to be a “when” rather than an “if” question,
\nwe will continue to see OEMs and suppliers revising immediate plans
\nas they balance the need to have capacity to support the shift,
\nwhile not having too much too soon.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u7acb\u523b\u8a3b\u518a\u53ca\u5831\u540d\u96fb\u8166\u88dc\u7fd2\u8ab2\u7a0b\u5427! <\/a> www.ITSec.vip<\/a> www.Sraa.com.hk<\/a>
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