![\"Dealer](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/1024\/dealer-inventory-and-brand-loyalty-v2_301020241536586.png\")
<\/p>\nThe increase in new vehicle inventories, from less than 1
\nmillion units in January 2022 to almost 3 million units in August
\n2024, has brought about other major changes to the industry. The
\ngreater availability of vehicles has provided consumers with more
\npurchasing options, shifting leverage and bargaining power in favor
\nof the consumer and creating downward pressure on prices. This has
\nled to the resurrection of leasing, which now accounts for a
\nquarter of all new vehicle transactions, up more than eight
\npercentage points from 16.6% in September 2022 to 24.9% in August
\n2024. Particularly in the luxury space, leasing provides customers
\nthe opportunity to drive a vehicle they may otherwise be unable to
\nafford.<\/p>\n
Rising inventories and higher lease rates are two industry-wide
\ntrends that have understandably led to greater brand loyalty.
\nAssuming everything else stays the same, when consumers have more
\nchoices within a brand, they are more likely to find what they want
\n– thus enhancing brand loyalty and reducing the likelihood of
\nswitching to competitors.\u202fLessees – who have stronger links with
\nthe dealer (including having to return the vehicle at lease end)
\nand shorter turn rates – are also consistently more loyal to the
\nbrand than owners (again, everything else being equal).<\/p>\n
As the following chart illustrates, brand loyalty has climbed in
\nthe past sixteen consecutive months year over year after declining
\nin the sixteen prior months. While industry-wide brand loyalty has
\nincreased, it is not yet at pre-pandemic levels of 54%-55%.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Historical actual buyer behavior supports these conclusions: The
\ncorrelation coefficient between dealer inventories and brand
\nloyalty from January 2022 to August 2024 is .60, according to
\nS&P Global Mobility dealer inventory data (see the following
\nchart).<\/p>\n
![\"Industry](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/1024\/industry-brand-loyalty-yoy-v2_301020241536586.png\")
<\/p>\n
The mainstream and luxury sectors in the market have both
\nexperienced rising brand loyalty over the past sixteen months, with
\nthe mainstream brands increasing every month and the luxury brands
\nup in twelve months but down in three of the four most recent
\nmonths.
\nAlso, as shown in the following chart, during the early part of
\nthis fifteen-month time span, the luxury brands exhibited greater
\nyear-over-year changes than the mainstream brands. This is likely
\nin part because the luxury brands had dropped further than the
\nmainstream brands during the inventory-shortage months and
\ntherefore had more ground to make up.<\/p>\n
![\"YOY](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/1024\/yoy-percentage-point-change-in-brand-loyalty-v2_301020241536586.png\")
<\/p>\n
Several brands have had exceptional brand loyalty performances,
\nincluding Honda (with six models enjoying ten or more consecutive
\nmonths of loyalty improvement), Volkswagen (also with six models
\nincreasing for ten or more months) and Lincoln (with one model
\nclaiming brand loyalty improvement for ten consecutive months).
\nOther brands listed below have also excelled, although they have
\nnot had the unbroken sequences of improvements.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/1024\/brand-loyalty-4_301020241107889.png\")
<\/p>\n
In conclusion, several S&P Global Mobility metrics,
\nincluding dealer inventories, leasing penetration and brand loyalty
\nindicate that the industry is well on track to return to its
\npre-pandemic landscape. However, the August 2024 brand loyalty
\nresults (50.3%) and leasing rate (24.9%) are still below the 2019
\nlevels (54%, and 29.5%, respectively), suggesting the industry has
\nnot yet fully recovered.<\/p>\n
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