{"id":155801,"date":"2025-01-08T06:37:29","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T06:37:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/electric-vehicle-battery-prices-2025-forecast.html"},"modified":"2025-01-08T06:37:29","modified_gmt":"2025-01-08T06:37:29","slug":"briefcase-where-are-ev-battery-prices-headed-in-2025-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/08\/briefcase-where-are-ev-battery-prices-headed-in-2025-and-beyond\/","title":{"rendered":"BriefCASE: Where are EV battery prices headed in 2025 and beyond?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Srikant Jayanthan, Senior Research Analyst, Supply Chain
\nand Technology, S&amp;P Global Mobility<\/em><\/p>\n

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) EV battery prices have decreased
\ndramatically over the past few years, mainly due to the fall in
\nprices of critical battery metals: Lithium, cobalt and nickel. For
\nexample, the price of cobalt has fallen from roughly $70,000 per
\nmetric ton in 2022 to about $30,000 in 2024.<\/p>\n

Similarly, the price for lithium carbonate has fallen from a
\nhigh of approximately $70,000 per metric ton to well below $15,000
\nin 2024. This article focuses primarily on two of the most
\nsought-after Li-ion battery cathode chemistries in the automotive
\nindustry today \u2014 NCM811 and lithium iron phosphate (LFP)
\nbatteries.<\/p>\n

Nickel cobalt manganese cells<\/h2>\n

The per kWh price of NCM811 cell is currently the lowest in
\nGreater China due to the low cost of battery materials, thanks to
\nhigh localization, and the price difference in the manufacturing
\ncost of these cells compared to Europe and North America.<\/p>\n

However, S&amp;P Global Mobility forecasts a more than 7% drop
\nin NCM811 cell prices in Europe between 2024 and 2030, falling at a
\nhigher rate than Greater China. Nevertheless, the global average
\nprice of NCM811 cell is expected to be marginally higher in the
\nsecond half of the decade compared with 2024.<\/p>\n

“An upward adjustment in prices is anticipated in the coming
\nyears, as some suppliers are currently selling their batteries with
\nminimal to no profit margin, which is financially unsustainable.
\nAdditionally, another factor that could drive prices higher in the
\nmedium term is the insufficient upstream battery supply chain
\nneeded to support the growing regional industries,” said Hugo Cruz,
\nsenior analyst, Battery Research at S&amp;P Global Mobility.<\/p>\n

Lithium iron phosphate cells<\/h2>\n

The price of LFP cells is over 20% lower than nickel cobalt
\nmanganese (NCM) cells. The average price of an LFP cell was just
\nunder $60\/kWh in 2024.<\/p>\n

Currently, Greater China has a near monopoly in LFP cell
\nmanufacturing, considering the negligible LFP production capacity
\nin Europe and North America. However, LFP production capacity is
\npoised to expand, especially in Europe, through this decade.<\/p>\n

For example, last month,
\nCATL announced an agreement with Stellantis<\/a> to invest up to
\n\u20ac4.1 billion to form a joint venture that will build a large-scale
\nLFP battery plant in Zaragoza, Spain. The plant is targeted to
\nstart production by end of 2026. It has also been reported that LG
\nEnergy Solution is aiming to open an LFP plant in Europe.<\/p>\n

The addition of LFP capacities outside of Greater China will
\nraise the global average price of LFP cells in the midterm, but as
\nthe manufacturing cost is brought under control through process
\nimprovements, the global LFP average cell price will gradually fall
\nbelow the current level. In fact, the difference of prices for LFP
\ncells in Greater China versus Europe is expected to contract from
\n42% currently to roughly 29% in 2030.<\/p>\n

EV battery prices at pack level<\/h2>\n

In terms of EV battery pack prices, the target to bring cost
\nparity between EVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles
\nwas always thought to be $100\/kWh. According to S&amp;P Global
\nMobility's battery price model, the price of battery packs has
\nalready dropped below this mark in some cases.<\/p>\n

For example, the price of LFP battery packs manufactured in
\nGreater China is already considerably below this mark This has
\nenabled several OEMs in mainland China to price their EVs in
\nsmaller segments on a par with ICE vehicles.<\/p>\n

However, NCM811 prices in most regions are still north of
\n$100\/kWh mark, despite the fall in cell prices in the last two
\nyears. Even in Greater China, the cost of an NCM811 battery pack is
\nabout $103\/kWh.<\/p>\n

EV battery industry trends<\/h2>\n

The price of battery metals will likely increase in the longer
\nterm; however, due to economy of scale and efficiency gains, the
\ncost of manufacturing will be lowered. These two effects will
\nresult in a flat price trend, which is in stark contrast with the
\nexponential price reduction in the past decade.<\/p>\n

We also expect a faster move toward cell-to-pack (CTP) and
\ncell-to-body (CTB) configurations for batteries as automakers look
\nto reduce weight and cost of manufacturing. In CTP, cells are
\ndirectly mounted onto the pack housing, with no modules in between,
\nreducing the number of components and assembly steps. Mainland
\nChinese cell makers such as BYD, with its Blade batteries and CATL,
\nwith its Shenxing and Qilin batteries, have been focusing heavily
\non CTP LFP batteries. Some European and American automakers are
\nalso looking at adopting CTP so we may see a few EV models with
\nthis tech in the next few years.<\/p>\n

This article is part of a weekly newsletter series titled
\nBriefCASE, produced by our AutoTechInsight service and featuring
\nindustry developments and technology trends in the automotive
\nsupply chain. The CASE automotive acronym stands for connected,
\nautonomous, sharing, and electric.<\/em><\/p>\n


\nSubscribe to BriefCASE newsletter<\/a><\/p>\n

You can also subscribe to AutoTechInsight (ATI), allowing
\nyou to quickly gain intel on market developments and technology
\ntrends, dive into granular forecasts, and seamlessly drive
\nanalytics to support challenging decision making.<\/em><\/p>\n


\nSubscribe to AutoTechInsight<\/a><\/p>\n

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By Srikant Jayanthan, Senior Research Analyst, Supply Chain
\nand Technology, S&amp;P Global MobilityLithium-ion (Li-ion) EV battery prices have decreased
\ndramatically over the past few years, mainly due to the fall in
\nprices of critical battery 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