{"id":157628,"date":"2025-01-07T03:03:52","date_gmt":"2025-01-07T03:03:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/us-tariff-changes-automotive-industry-forecast-2025.html"},"modified":"2025-01-07T03:03:52","modified_gmt":"2025-01-07T03:03:52","slug":"us-tariff-changes-and-forecast-implications-2025-assumptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/07\/us-tariff-changes-and-forecast-implications-2025-assumptions\/","title":{"rendered":"US Tariff Changes and Forecast Implications: 2025 Assumptions"},"content":{"rendered":"

As President-elect Donald Trump's potential US tariff policies
\nloom, S&P Global Mobility has updated its baseline assumptions
\nfor its vehicle forecasts. Along with other global and regional
\neconomic, regulatory and market conditions, we have factored these
\nnew tariff assumptions into our
\nDecember 2024 vehicle forecasts<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Anticipated US tariff changes<\/strong><\/h2>\n

By mid-2025, S&amp;P Global Mobility expects the US will
\nimplement a universal tariff on goods from outside North America.
\nWe currently assume Canada and Mexico will be exempt from these
\ntariffs as part of the governing US-Mexico-Canada Agreement
\n(USMCA), though the Trump transition team has indicated it may
\nimpose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico. This could evolve as the
\ncountries review this trade agreement in mid-2026.<\/p>\n

A universal tariff would presumably cover all goods, including
\nautos and auto parts, based on the December 2024 round of S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility vehicle, production, powertrain and sales
\nforecasts. Our current assumption is for a universal standard 10%
\ntariff, up from a typical 2.5%.<\/p>\n

We expect that goods from mainland China imported to the US will
\nsee a new 30% tariff (up from 21%), with the existing 102.5% tariff
\non electric vehicles from mainland China remaining in place. We
\nexpect this tariff will not be used as a bargaining tool that Trump
\nwould revoke if he obtains other concessions but would instead
\nbecome a permanent tariff.<\/p>\n

A period of policy uncertainty<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Trump has said he will act quickly after he takes office on Jan.
\n20, 2025. We expect an extended period of heightened policy
\nuncertainty, which will have real-world impacts on economies. Even
\nif he does not act on some of the more extreme tariff proposals,
\nthe environment is not likely to be clear and stable.<\/p>\n

A heightened period of policy turmoil and uncertainty is
\nexpected for as much as a year, possibly longer. This uncertainty
\nitself can be as difficult for the automotive industry as the
\nimpact of tariffs when they arrive.<\/p>\n

Trump will also likely make changes to US emissions
\nrequirements, and we expect significant reductions in
\nbattery-electric vehicle (BEV) volumes\/market share and adjustments
\nin electrification mix. In 2030, we expect the US BEV mix to reach
\nabout 30%, compared with prior projections for about 40% in that
\nyear.<\/p>\n

The December 2024 forecast update reflects a mix of upgrades in
\nthe extreme near-term forecast and significant downgrades for
\nvarious regions in the intermediate term. Our downward revisions
\nfor 2025 and 2026 reflect some negative impacts of broader tariff
\nactions under the incoming Trump administration, along with
\nshifting market demand and inventory management challenges, among
\nother factors.<\/p>\n

US tariff changes would impact virtually every
\ncountry's economy<\/strong><\/h2>\n

S&amp;P Global Mobility expects both positive and negative
\nimpacts on the US and global vehicle markets and economies as a
\nresult of Trump's policies. A universal tariff will affect
\nvirtually every country's economy and there are risks associated if
\nthe administration takes this step. However, there is also an
\nopportunity for the US light-vehicle market to see some
\nbenefits.<\/p>\n

Take Europe and Asia, for example. Europe is a major exporter to
\nthe US. Its key manufacturing economies will see the biggest
\nimpact, and this could weaken internal markets across the region.
\nWith European manufacturing already declining, the impact on jobs
\nand public sentiment could worsen.<\/p>\n

Some ASEAN markets have benefited from resourcing out of
\nmainland China, but expected slower US exports and a slower China
\nmarket in the near term could delay auto sales recovery.<\/p>\n

Some new policies may provide economic
\nrelief<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In the US, we expect several of Trump's policies to provide some
\nrelief. We view proposed income tax breaks and corporate tax cuts
\nas potentially positive changes.<\/p>\n

Specific to the US light-vehicle market, the administration's
\nexpected rollbacks of emissions and fuel economy regulations will
\nlikely reshape the mix of vehicles being offered in the US. The
\nlowered regulatory requirements will mean vehicles with lower
\nlevels of electrification because of less pressure to move to BEVs
\nas quickly.<\/p>\n

That change should enable automakers to offer more affordable
\npropulsion solutions, easing pressure on vehicle prices. We
\ncontinue to expect growth for BEVs, but with lower penetration in
\nthe medium-term due to eased regulations.<\/p>\n

Because of expected lower vehicle prices, we forecast that
\nmedium-term US light-vehicle sales will improve.<\/p>\n

The impact of a global light-vehicle sales tariff may
\npeak in 2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Because the tariffs would not be in place for all of 2025,
\nS&amp;P Global Mobility expects global light vehicle sales impacted
\nmore heavily in 2026, with smaller impact in later years. Compared
\nwith our November 2024 forecast, we expect global light-vehicle
\nsales to decrease by about 793,000 units in 2025, with a peak
\nimpact of 1.05 million units in 2026.<\/p>\n

Downside risks of tariffs: Potential trade war,
\ninflation<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A US universal tariff policy could, however, lead to an
\naggressive trade war. In that case, it's likely that inflation go
\nup, while interest rates will not decrease as much as expected.<\/p>\n

Countries exporting to the US will see a slowdown in their
\nmanufacturing industries, many of which are already in a slump.
\nThis would affect mainland China, Europe, key Asian export markets
\nand most emerging markets.<\/p>\n

S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence expects the world GDP
\nforecast for 2025 to be lowered because of these revised
\nassumptions, with mainland China taking the biggest hit – which
\nwill affect countries exporting to mainland China as well.<\/p>\n

Though opportunities for US light-vehicle sales are likely due
\nto lower vehicle prices from these regulatory changes, we also
\nexpect the US GDP forecast will be lowered for the next three to
\nfour years, compared to our November 2024 economic forecasts. As
\nthe cost of goods increases and the market adjusts, we expect the
\nUS to see higher than previously expected inflation initially, with
\ninterest rates likely to be higher across the forecast than in
\nearlier projections.<\/p>\n

he S&amp;P Global Mobility AutoIntelligence service provides
\ndaily analysis of global automotive news and events. We deliver
\ntimely context and impactful analysis to navigate the fast-moving
\nindustry.<\/em><\/p>\n


\nGet a free trial of AutoIntelligence<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\n

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As President-elect Donald Trump's potential US tariff policies
\nloom, S&amp;P Global Mobility has updated its baseline assumptions
\nfor its vehicle forecasts. Along with other global and regional
\neconomic, regulatory and market conditions, we hav…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1748,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[3267],"tags":[61,122,127,129,124,128,125,132,131,133,126,130,123,66,94,88,97,56,64,65,60,3344,3351,3357,3360,3335,3340,3362,112,3353,40,75,95,3350,3352,3356,3343,3359,3339,3345,3334,3341,104,3354,33,120,3358,3349,3337,3348,105,101,98,115,30,29,41,86,3342,3361,70,69,68,72,71,26,118,108,87,3355,46,55,48,52,54,51,50,83,3338,62,58,57,3336,109,35,3346,59,63,85,79,82,96,80,27,81,114,44,42,43,45,38,39,110,117,100,111,116,3300,73,89,90,92,91,93,84,78,37,102,34,36,77,67,74,99,113,3347,119,28,121,32,47,49,53,103,31,76],"class_list":["post-157628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-car-or-automobile","tag-airpods","tag-anime","tag-anime-characters","tag-anime-cosplay","tag-anime-edits","tag-anime-merchandise","tag-anime-movies","tag-anime-news","tag-anime-recommendations","tag-anime-reviews","tag-anime-series","tag-anime-streaming","tag-animes","tag-app-store","tag-app-store-samsung","tag-appgallery","tag-appgallery-oneplus","tag-apple","tag-apple-music","tag-apple-tv","tag-apple-watch","tag-auto-financing-guide","tag-automobile-industry-news","tag-automobile-laws-and-regulations","tag-automobile-shows-and-expos","tag-automobile-specifications","tag-automobile-technology","tag-autonomous-vehicles","tag-bbc-sport","tag-best-cars-for-long-drives","tag-best-mobile-games","tag-bixby","tag-bixby-xiaomi","tag-car-accessories","tag-car-comparison","tag-car-customization-ideas","tag-car-insurance-advice","tag-car-interior-design-ideas","tag-car-maintenance-tips","tag-car-resale-value","tag-car-reviews","tag-car-safety-features","tag-champions-league","tag-city-cars","tag-cyberpunk","tag-cyberpunk-2077","tag-driving-tips-and-tricks","tag-eco-friendly-cars","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-family-cars","tag-fantasy-football","tag-fifa","tag-football","tag-formula-1","tag-fortnite","tag-free-fire","tag-free-mobile-games","tag-freebuds-pro","tag-fuel-efficiency-tips","tag-future-of-automobiles","tag-galaxy-a52","tag-galaxy-note-20","tag-galaxy-s21","tag-galaxy-watch-4","tag-galaxy-z-fold-3","tag-game","tag-games","tag-golf","tag-harmonyos","tag-highway-cars","tag-how-to-backup-iphone","tag-how-to-factory-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-restore-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-5","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-6","tag-huawei","tag-hybrid-cars","tag-ios","tag-ipad","tag-iphone","tag-latest-car-models","tag-live-soccer","tag-lol","tag-luxury-cars","tag-macbook","tag-macos","tag-mate-40-pro","tag-mi-11-lite","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p-huawei","tag-mi-smart-band-6","tag-minecraft","tag-miui","tag-mlb-scores","tag-mobile-game-design","tag-mobile-game-development","tag-mobile-game-marketing","tag-mobile-game-monetization","tag-mobile-games","tag-mobile-gaming","tag-nba-scores","tag-nba-standings","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-scores","tag-nhl-scores","tag-off-road-vehicles","tag-one-ui","tag-oneplus","tag-oneplus-9-pro","tag-oneplus-buds-pro","tag-oneplus-nord-ce-5g","tag-oxygenos","tag-p40-pro-plus","tag-poco-x3-pro","tag-pokemon","tag-premier-league","tag-pubg","tag-pubg-mobile","tag-redmi-note-10-pro","tag-samsung","tag-samsung-pay","tag-soccer","tag-sports","tag-sports-cars","tag-steam","tag-steeam","tag-top-10-anime","tag-valorant","tag-when-do-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-does-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-is-the-iphone-7-coming-out","tag-world-cup","tag-xbox-series-x","tag-xiaomi"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1748"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157628"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":157630,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157628\/revisions\/157630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"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