{"id":61672,"date":"2023-12-14T08:33:49","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T08:33:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/sp-global-mobility-forecasts-883m-auto-sales-in-2024.html"},"modified":"2023-12-14T08:33:49","modified_gmt":"2023-12-14T08:33:49","slug":"sp-global-mobility-forecasts-88-3m-auto-sales-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/14\/sp-global-mobility-forecasts-88-3m-auto-sales-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

As 2024 approaches, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3
\nmillion new vehicle sales worldwide next year as the recovery rolls
\non. With the brakes off the supply chain, the risk to further
\ngrowth is that demand momentum fades as consumer uncertainty
\novertakes pent-up demand.<\/em><\/h4>\n

Global new light vehicle sales in 2024 will see a 2.8% increase
\nyear-over-year, according to a new forecast by S&amp;P Global
\nMobility. The light vehicle output recovery continues to feed
\ninventory restocking efforts across many regions, as supply chain
\nand demand is further recovering, supported by lingering pent-up
\nconsumer demand. S&amp;P Global Mobility remains wary on recovery
\nprospects, however, with consumer demand challenged by elevated
\nvehicle pricing alongside challenging credit and lending
\nconditions.<\/p>\n

The forecast outlook incorporates stickier interest rates,
\nimproving supply chains, the affordability
\nsqueeze<\/a>, lofty new vehicle prices, patchy consumer confidence,
\nenergy price\/supply concerns, auto lending risks, and ongoing
\nelectrification growing pains.<\/p>\n

“2024 is expected to be another year of cagey recovery, with the
\nauto industry moving beyond clear supply-side risks, into a murkier
\nmacro-led demand environment,” said Colin Couchman, executive
\ndirector of global light vehicle forecasting for S&amp;P Global
\nMobility. “A major concern is how 'natural' EV demand will fare as
\ngovernments consider scaling back interventionist policy support –
\nespecially for incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, and OEM
\nplanning targets.”<\/p>\n

Full-year 2023 global light vehicle sales – projected to reach
\nnearly 86.0 million units by S&amp;P Global Mobility – represent a
\n8.9% increase from 2022 levels, with new auto demand benefiting
\nfrom ongoing output gains from restocking inventories as supply
\nchains normalize.<\/p>\n

Market-by-market forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe: Wrapping up 2023, solid Western\/Central European market
\nmomentum should deliver 14.7 million units (+12.8% y\/y), as
\nimproved vehicle production levels help delivery times and
\ninventory recovery. For 2024, S&amp;P Global Mobility forecasts
\n15.1 million units, up by 2.9% y\/y – reflecting economic recession
\nrisks, tighter credit conditions, easing pent-up demand, still-high
\ncar prices, and tapering EV subsidies.<\/p>\n

“Key challenges for Europe include the dynamic electrification
\ntransition, alongside wait-and-see customers, lurking Chinese OEMs,
\nenergy woes, and looming EU elections,” Couchman said.<\/p>\n

United States: US sales volumes are expected to reach 15.9
\nmillion units in 2024, an estimated increase of 2.0% from the
\nprojected 2023 level of 15.5 million units.<\/p>\n

“Just when the auto industry is looking to return to a sense of
\nnormalcy from the supply side of the equation, US consumers in the
\nmarket for new vehicle in 2024 will continue to face affordability
\nissues by way of high interest rates, tight credit conditions and
\nslow-to-recede new vehicle prices,” said Chris Hopson, manager of
\nNorth American light vehicle sales forecasting for S&amp;P Global
\nMobility. “An uncertain consumer translates to an expectation of a
\nmildly progressing auto sales environment next year.”<\/p>\n

“With an assumption that auto production levels will continue to
\nadvance in 2024, growth of new vehicle inventory presents the
\nopportunity for rising incentive levels and deal making – a
\npotential release valve to the vehicle price pressures realized
\nover the last year,” Hopson added.<\/p>\n

With the rollout of several highly anticipated models, US BEV
\nsales will continue to develop in the new year. By the end of 2024,
\nthere will be nearly 100 BEV models available, double the number
\nthere were in 2022, covering several more segments and providing
\nconsumers interested in an electric vehicle even more choice.<\/p>\n

Mainland China: For the year ending, the CNY100 billion
\nextension of New Energy Vehicle (NEV) incentives and recovering
\nlocal vehicle production supporting domestic sales, 2023 should see
\na recovery to 25.3 million units (+4.9% y\/y), according to S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility. For 2024, the market will continue to be supported
\nby pent-up demand with gradual improvement of consumer confidence –
\nwhich has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. 2024 demand
\nis forecasted at 26.4 million units, up a further 4.2%.<\/p>\n

Mainland China NEV affordability is likely to further improve in
\n2024 with local battery cell prices already declining significantly
\nthrough 2023. Coupled with NEV tax exemption into 2024-2025, NEV
\npenetration (as % of passenger vehicles) is projected to further
\nincrease to 44% in 2024, from 36% in 2023.<\/p>\n

2024 production outlook downshifting towards traditional
\ndemand-driven model<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the manufacturing side, global light vehicle production in
\n2023 is expected to finish at 89.8 million units – a healthy 9.0%
\nimprovement over 2022 levels that exceeds expectations in several
\nregions, further building on implied inventory restocking. This
\nmarks a welcome return to pre-pandemic levels of production on a
\nglobal basis, powered by gains in mainland China and India.<\/p>\n

S&amp;P Global Mobility continues to see a general production
\noutlook that is reliant on a more traditional demand-driven model.
\nAs we transition to 2024, with inventories reaching equilibrium in
\nmany markets, global production growth is expected to slip into a
\nmild reverse as the industry navigates recovery after a tumultuous
\nseveral years. For 2024, S&amp;P Global Mobility forecasts light
\nvehicle production levels to decline by 0.4%, to 89.4 million
\nunits.<\/p>\n

“Vehicle output levels are flirting with the top of the current
\ncycle, with faster-than-expected inventory restocking potentially
\ncolliding with real-world consumer demand levels,” said Mark
\nFulthorpe, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting
\nfor S&amp;P Global Mobility. “During 2023, vehicle production has
\nbenefitted from a virtuous cycle of improving supply chains and
\nstrong order backlogs. As these conditions recede, manufacturing
\nwill have less support.”<\/p>\n

In mainland China, S&amp;P Global Mobility forecasts effectively
\nflat production levels for 2024, down 0.1%, at 28.3 million units.
\nWith inventories largely restored to pre-crisis levels and fragile
\ndomestic demand, further export gains are expected to provide the
\nmain positive effect.<\/p>\n

Europe is expected to produce 17.4 million units in 2024, off by
\n1.8% from an estimated 17.8 million this year. Like in mainland
\nChina, inventory levels are estimated to be restored close to
\npre-crisis levels and will provide little upside in an environment
\nmarked by diminishing backlogs and weaker incoming demand. Growing
\nimports from China are also expected to be felt.<\/p>\n

For the North American region, overall production is expected to
\nmake a small gain, 0.5%, at 15.7 million units – boosted by 3.9%
\ngrowth in US activity. Inventory restocking continues to provide an
\nupside, but it is not uniform, with pockets of the Detroit-3's
\nlineup overstocked while Japanese and Korean brands still have a
\npipeline to fill.<\/p>\n

While supply chain conditions have undoubtedly improved since
\n2022, we continue to warn of a structural deficit in capacity for
\nsemiconductors, notably older mature nodes. There was theoretical
\novercapacity in 2023 as demand from other industries eased, but
\nthere remains a risk that constraints could resurface once demand
\nfrom other sectors recovers.<\/p>\n

“We do not foresee chip supply problems in 2024 as allocation
\nfor automotive is robust and is bolstered by recent stockpiling of
\nchips by the vehicle makers,” said Jeremie Bouchaud, director,
\nsemiconductor, E\/E and autonomy practice, S&amp;P Global Mobility.
\n“But 2025 could be a bottleneck if non-automotive demand comes back
\nstrongly.”<\/p>\n

Electrification shift looks unstoppable despite
\nnear-term uncertainty in Europe &amp; US<\/strong><\/p>\n

The past few years have seen many OEMs reaffirming
\nelectrification ambitions for the coming five to 15 years. More
\nrecently the narrative has shifted, with some automakers
\nhighlighting the twin challenges of the electrification
\ntransition\u2014scaling output of sellable BEVs and finding willing
\ncustomers to buy them.<\/p>\n

Reports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly
\nexaggerated, and S&amp;P Global Mobility projects global sales for
\nbattery electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3
\nmillion units for 2024 – accounting for an estimated 16.2% of
\nglobal passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an
\nestimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12% market share.<\/p>\n

Major markets are forecast for the majority of this volume,
\nthough smaller markets will also see modest increases. Forecasted
\nBEV share by region is as follows:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Beyond 2024, many questions remain in the electrification space,
\nespecially regarding charging infrastructure, grid power, battery
\nsupply chains, global sourcing patterns, a swath of newly
\narriving EVs<\/a>, and the appropriate level of policymaker support
\nto help smooth the transition from fossil fuel to electric. For the
\ntime being, China's NEV policy, Europe's “Fit for 55,” and the IRA
\nin the US are the key mile markers for policymakers' visions for a
\ngreener mobility future.<\/p>\n

LIGHT VEHICLE SALES
\nFORECASTS<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHT VEHICLE PRODUCTION
\nFORECASTS<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHT VEHICLE ENGINE
\nFORECASTS<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHT VEHICLE ALTERNATIVE
\nPROPULSION FORECASTS<\/a><\/p>\n

GLOBAL AUTO DEMAND TRACKER<\/a><\/p>\n\n

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As 2024 approaches, S&amp;P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3
\nmillion new vehicle sales worldwide next year as the recovery rolls
\non. With the brakes off the supply chain, the risk to further
\ngrowth is that demand momentum fades as consumer uncertaint…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":479,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","footnotes":""},"categories":[3267],"tags":[61,122,127,129,124,128,125,132,131,133,126,130,123,66,94,88,97,56,64,65,60,3344,3351,3357,3360,3335,3340,3362,112,3353,40,75,95,3350,3352,3356,3343,3359,3339,3345,3334,3341,104,3354,33,120,3358,3349,3337,3348,105,101,98,115,30,29,41,86,3342,3361,70,69,68,72,71,26,118,108,87,3355,46,55,48,52,54,51,50,83,3338,62,58,57,3336,109,35,3346,59,63,85,79,82,96,80,27,81,114,44,42,43,45,38,39,110,117,100,111,116,3300,73,89,90,92,91,93,84,78,37,102,34,36,77,67,74,99,113,3347,119,28,121,32,47,49,53,103,31,76],"class_list":["post-61672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-car-or-automobile","tag-airpods","tag-anime","tag-anime-characters","tag-anime-cosplay","tag-anime-edits","tag-anime-merchandise","tag-anime-movies","tag-anime-news","tag-anime-recommendations","tag-anime-reviews","tag-anime-series","tag-anime-streaming","tag-animes","tag-app-store","tag-app-store-samsung","tag-appgallery","tag-appgallery-oneplus","tag-apple","tag-apple-music","tag-apple-tv","tag-apple-watch","tag-auto-financing-guide","tag-automobile-industry-news","tag-automobile-laws-and-regulations","tag-automobile-shows-and-expos","tag-automobile-specifications","tag-automobile-technology","tag-autonomous-vehicles","tag-bbc-sport","tag-best-cars-for-long-drives","tag-best-mobile-games","tag-bixby","tag-bixby-xiaomi","tag-car-accessories","tag-car-comparison","tag-car-customization-ideas","tag-car-insurance-advice","tag-car-interior-design-ideas","tag-car-maintenance-tips","tag-car-resale-value","tag-car-reviews","tag-car-safety-features","tag-champions-league","tag-city-cars","tag-cyberpunk","tag-cyberpunk-2077","tag-driving-tips-and-tricks","tag-eco-friendly-cars","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-family-cars","tag-fantasy-football","tag-fifa","tag-football","tag-formula-1","tag-fortnite","tag-free-fire","tag-free-mobile-games","tag-freebuds-pro","tag-fuel-efficiency-tips","tag-future-of-automobiles","tag-galaxy-a52","tag-galaxy-note-20","tag-galaxy-s21","tag-galaxy-watch-4","tag-galaxy-z-fold-3","tag-game","tag-games","tag-golf","tag-harmonyos","tag-highway-cars","tag-how-to-backup-iphone","tag-how-to-factory-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-reset-iphone","tag-how-to-restore-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-5","tag-how-to-unlock-iphone-6","tag-huawei","tag-hybrid-cars","tag-ios","tag-ipad","tag-iphone","tag-latest-car-models","tag-live-soccer","tag-lol","tag-luxury-cars","tag-macbook","tag-macos","tag-mate-40-pro","tag-mi-11-lite","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p","tag-mi-home-security-camera-basic-1080p-huawei","tag-mi-smart-band-6","tag-minecraft","tag-miui","tag-mlb-scores","tag-mobile-game-design","tag-mobile-game-development","tag-mobile-game-marketing","tag-mobile-game-monetization","tag-mobile-games","tag-mobile-gaming","tag-nba-scores","tag-nba-standings","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-scores","tag-nhl-scores","tag-off-road-vehicles","tag-one-ui","tag-oneplus","tag-oneplus-9-pro","tag-oneplus-buds-pro","tag-oneplus-nord-ce-5g","tag-oxygenos","tag-p40-pro-plus","tag-poco-x3-pro","tag-pokemon","tag-premier-league","tag-pubg","tag-pubg-mobile","tag-redmi-note-10-pro","tag-samsung","tag-samsung-pay","tag-soccer","tag-sports","tag-sports-cars","tag-steam","tag-steeam","tag-top-10-anime","tag-valorant","tag-when-do-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-does-the-iphone-7-come-out","tag-when-is-the-iphone-7-coming-out","tag-world-cup","tag-xbox-series-x","tag-xiaomi"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/479"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61672"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61672\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61673,"href":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61672\/revisions\/61673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"ht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