{"id":71968,"date":"2024-01-04T06:14:23","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T06:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/mobility\/en\/research-analysis\/ev-raw-materials-supply-crunch-battery-recycling.html"},"modified":"2024-01-04T06:14:23","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T06:14:23","slug":"looming-ev-raw-materials-supply-crunch-has-oems-eyeing-battery-recycling-and-production-scrap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gamefootballmobileanimeiphone.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/04\/looming-ev-raw-materials-supply-crunch-has-oems-eyeing-battery-recycling-and-production-scrap\/","title":{"rendered":"Looming EV raw materials supply crunch has OEMs eyeing battery recycling and production scrap"},"content":{"rendered":"

Automakers and suppliers concerned about the
\navailability of access to raw materials for electric car batteries
\nare turning their attention to alternative sources: scrap from
\nbattery production and recyclable metals from end-of-life
\nbatteries.<\/strong><\/h3>\n


\nThe expected increase in global EV sales<\/a> by the end of the
\ndecade will put huge pressure on the supply chain for critical
\nbattery raw materials such as cobalt, nickel and lithium. For
\nexample, despite a current surplus in lithium, demand projections
\nfor the mineral will likely be in deficit by 2027, according to a
\n
\nforecast by S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence<\/a>. That will
\ncreate a bottleneck for automotive supply and drive the industry's
\nfocus toward battery recycling to keep EV battery costs down,
\naccording to a S&amp;P Global Mobility analysis.<\/p>\n

In addition to the ecological costs of mining, there are
\nhumanitarian concerns accessing certain battery-grade raw
\nmaterials<\/a> \u2014 such as sourcing cobalt from the Democratic
\nRepublic of the Congo, where a variety of geo-political issues are
\nin play. There are also macroeconomic concerns regarding the
\nregional monopoly of mainland China in vertically integrating
\nmaterial supply and refining<\/a>. In addition to investing heavily
\nin offshore mines, mainland China controls most of the world's
\ncobalt and lithium refining \u2014 the crucial middle step between
\nmining and cell manufacturing. More than 60% of both cobalt and
\nlithium are refined in mainland China.<\/p>\n

In response, several countries have been mandating increased
\nlocal sourcing of raw materials. But countries not having natural
\nreserves for these materials will have to rely on recycling
\nend-of-life (EOL) batteries for their resources. By 2032, S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility estimates around 900 GWh of EOL batteries will be
\navailable for recycling. That's the equivalent of batteries for 12
\nmillion electric vehicles.<\/p>\n

Foreseeing a challenge in securing raw materials, several
\nautomakers have established partnerships with raw-material
\nsuppliers and recyclers. For example, Volkswagen and Audi have
\npartnered with Redwood Materials in North America, Umicore in
\nEurope, and Ganfeng Lithium in mainland China for battery
\nrecycling.<\/p>\n

Some automakers are setting up in-house operations. Early in
\n2023, Mercedes-Benz broke ground on a battery recycling plant in
\nKuppenheim, Germany, that had been scheduled to begin mechanical
\ndismantling of EV batteries by year's end. Tesla also has announced
\nplans for its battery factories to recycle batteries on-site.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\nIn addition, production scrap is seen as a key play. Scrap
\ngenerated during battery manufacturing includes rejected or
\ndefective batteries and materials or components that do not meet
\nquality standards. It consists of metals, electrolytes, and other
\ncomponents. Scrap from cell production accounts for a large part of
\nthe total production scrap, followed by battery-pack production
\nscrap and battery-module production scrap.<\/p>\n

The hardest aspect of the battery manufacturing process to get
\nconsistently correct is cell production, due to its complexity.
\nTherefore, this process inherently generates most scrap. For the
\ncell, S&amp;P Global Mobility estimates a rate of 4-12% scrap for
\nsteady production, based on the type of supplier and cell type. But
\nthat number can be as high as 15-30% for companies in their
\nstart-up phase. In contrast, for the battery module and pack, a
\n0.5% to 1.5% scrap rate is closer to the norm.<\/p>\n

However, production scrap may see a diminishing rate of return
\nbased on optimization of manufacturing processes, changing battery
\nchemistries, and even the evolution of the shape of the battery
\ncell.<\/p>\n

Recycling is projected to provide significantly more battery
\nmetals over the next 10 years. In 2023, around 40,000 metric tons
\nof nickel and 8,400 metric tons of cobalt will be recovered from
\nrecycled lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries and production scrap
\nglobally. Nickel will see a 28.1% compound annual growth rate
\n(CAGR) to around 382,000 metric tons by 2032, while cobalt will
\nincrease by a 22% CAGR to 51,000 metric tons, according to S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility analysis.<\/p>\n

As a result, recycled cobalt from EOL recycled batteries and
\nproduction scrap is expected to meet more than 21% of the global
\ncobalt demand in 2032, up from around 12% in 2023. More than 19% of
\nthe total demand of nickel in 2032 is expected to be met from these
\nrecycled sources.<\/p>\n

The economics of EV battery recycling<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even though there will be an estimated
\n95 million out-of-warranty electric vehicles by 2033<\/a>, it's not
\na straightforward equation for high-voltage battery recyclers.
\nAlthough recycling requires less energy and generates less
\npollution compared with mining, the economics of recycling may not
\nalways be favorable without policy support.<\/p>\n


\nA recent report by S&amp;P Global Mobility<\/a> (subscription
\nrequired) noted that differing regional government policies can
\nhinder consistent strategic plans for OEMs. For example, while the
\nEU passed regulations in July 2023 mandating EV battery recycling,
\nthe US does not have similar legislation in place – opting instead
\nfor incentives for manufacturing with local content, as outlined in
\nits Inflation Reduction Act.<\/p>\n

Western OEMs and suppliers must also contend with the ascendancy
\nof mainland China – the largest market for end-of-life new-energy
\nvehicles (NEVs) – which is projected to dominate the skyrocketing
\nrecycling scene. Total production scrap is expected to rise from 40
\nGWh in 2023 to 135 GWh in 2032, with end-of-life batteries expected
\nto rise from 16 GWh in 2023 to 438 GWh in 2032, according to
\nS&amp;P Global Mobility analysis.<\/p>\n

Despite the size of the Chinese market, there is little
\nopportunity for new, foreign players to enter the battery-recycling
\nbusiness there. The 10 largest hydrometallurgy battery recycling
\nplants in mainland China already process a total of more than 1
\nmegaton of batteries. In addition, in 2022, China had nearly 8,000
\nrecycling players (each with more than RMB 10m, or $1.5m, in
\nregistered capital); that number grew to 20,000 in 2023. Most of
\nthese firms currently focus on production scrap, but EOL recycling
\nis projected to exceed production scrap in China in 2026, and in
\nthe rest of the world in 2027.<\/p>\n

As such, recyclers looking to get into the game will likely have
\nbetter chances and more opportunity setting up shop in the EU and
\nUS, the S&amp;P Global Mobility report stated.<\/p>\n

Not that EOL recycling is an easy task. Changes in EV battery
\nsystems will potentially make recycling more difficult. Dismantling
\nthe pack, the crucial step in pre-treatment for recycling, is labor
\nintensive in that it must be done manually for a high-voltage
\nbattery cell and module. That will become more complicated as the
\nindustry moves from cell\/module\/pack to cell\/pack – where the cell
\nbody will be nearly impossible to disassemble manually because of
\nits module configuration. And by 2030 the pack and body
\nconfiguration is set to be in nearly 50% of EVs.<\/p>\n

Changing battery chemistries affect processes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Availability of metals for recycling will vary significantly by
\nregion and technology rollout. Owing to current demand for lithium
\niron phosphate (LFP) batteries, mainland China will generate a much
\nhigher availability of lithium from recycled batteries than other
\nregions. But the availability of cobalt and nickel will be much
\nlower for those batteries.<\/p>\n

However, growth in demand for new-tech nickel cobalt manganese
\n(NCM) batteries in mainland China will ramp up much faster than LFP
\nbatteries – thus increasing nickel recovered from EOL batteries in
\nthe long term.<\/p>\n

North America will have a stronger share of high-nickel
\nbatteries. Between 2023 and 2032, availability of cobalt, nickel,
\nand lithium from EOL batteries and production scrap should grow at
\nCAGRs of 23.8%, 26.2% and 27.3%, respectively, according to S&amp;P
\nGlobal Mobility estimates.<\/p>\n

The US will likely be among the most active markets moving
\ntoward cobalt-free Li-ion batteries, which will keep the demand for
\ncobalt from the region in check.<\/p>\n

Europe is expected to have the highest levels of battery
\nrecycling across all regions until the end of the decade, owing to
\ntightening local-sourcing regulations. Between 2023 and 2032 in
\nEurope, the availability of cobalt, nickel, and lithium from EOL
\nbatteries and production scrap will likely grow at CAGRs of 24.7%,
\n33.4% and 32.1%, respectively.<\/p>\n

Other than just serving as a source for critical battery raw
\nmaterials, recycling will play a key role in reducing the
\nenvironmental impact of batteries. During the life cycle of an EV,
\nbattery cell manufacturing and raw material mining make the largest
\ncontribution toward CO2 emissions. As such, battery recycling can
\nbe seen as
\na win on the sustainability front<\/a>, as it will improve the
\nmine-to-wheel ESG score for EVs.<\/p>\n

Matthew Beecham and Srikant Jayanthan contributed to this
\nreport.<\/em><\/p>\n


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SalesExecutive@ITSec.vip<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Automakers and suppliers concerned about the
\navailability of access to raw materials for electric car batteries
\nare turning their attention to alternative sources: scrap from
\nbattery production and recyclable metals from end-of-life
\nbatteries.
\nThe 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