\nemissions and fuel economy regulations. Under the previous Trump
\nadministration, less aggressive regulatory policy was enacted, and
\nthe mechanism that allows California to set its own emissions
\nregulations was ended. Under President Biden, more aggressive
\ntargets were finalized covering regulations through the 2026 model
\nyear, and California's waiver was reinstated. <span\/><\/a>Proposed EPA and NHTSA rules for the 2027
\nto 2032 model years are expected to be finalized before the
\nelection.<\/p>\n
If the election results in a shift to a Republican
\nadministration, regulations could be pulled back and that
\nCalifornia's waiver again revoked. NHTSA is required by US law to
\nset standards at least 18 months before a model year; with a new
\npresident taking office in January 2025, a regulatory change would
\nhave to be passed nearly immediately to impact the 2027 model year.
\nHowever, the process for change simply does not happen that fast.
\nGiven the time that it takes for regulation to work through the
\nsystem, the earliest model year to be affected by a new change may
\nbe the 2028 model year.<\/p>\n
Investment implications<\/strong><\/p>\n S&P Global Mobility estimates that, in the year following Regardless of party affiliation, congressional representatives How will industry respond?<\/strong><\/p>\n A reversal or reduction of subsidies could have substantial However, S&P Global Mobility also sees potential for The baseline S&P Global Mobility forecasts assume that Any change to emissions regulations also has the potential to Electric anyway, stay the course<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The automakers who are already fully electric will, of course, Tesla's North American production footprint is expected to grow 2025 Lucid Gravity \/ Stephanie Brinley for S&P Global Stay flexible to market demand and regulatory Stellantis and BMW have focused on developing platforms that can Though BMW is poised to launch its Neue Klasse BEV platform in 2023 RAM BEV Concept \/ Stephanie Brinley for S&P Global Stellantis has not yet jumped into the electrification market in For North America, the automakers in this camp may extend Without the IRA subsidies, however, there is risk that these Toyota is almost a case unto itself, but fits in the “flexible” Stick to the strategy, with some timing 2025 Chevrolet Silverado EV \/ Stephanie Brinley for S&P While a change in IRA or emissions and fuel economy requirements Automakers potentially best positioned to modulate production Hyundai Motor Group has dedicated BEV platforms and plans to Ford also has more hybrid and PHEV solutions available to extend GM is expected to be revising its EV product plan and US policy agnostic<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Nissan, Honda and Mazda have all indicated plans for increasing 2025 Honda Prologue \/ Stephanie Brinley for S&P Global Nissan executives speaking at the Japan Mobility Show in October Mazda was expected to lean on partner Toyota for EVs, though Honda took an expedient course to get BEVs for both Honda and What to watch<\/strong><\/p>\n A Republican in the White House – combined with Congressional All of these policies are predicated on the Biden Administration But even if a Republican candidate wins the Presidency, changes In addition, several of the states in which large battery If the Republican party pushes a target of modifying the laws In addition, regardless of campaign promises and rhetoric, Implications for EV share<\/strong><\/p>\n Against the backdrop of the next US election, S&P Global However, in the context of this discussion, if there are drastic Should the EPA and NHTSA proposals of 2023 be finalized and The result is a hugely complex political and business \u7acb\u523b\u8a3b\u518a\u53ca\u5831\u540d\u96fb\u8166\u88dc\u7fd2\u8ab2\u7a0b\u5427! <\/a> www.ITSec.vip<\/a> www.Sraa.com.hk<\/a>
\nthe enactment of the IRA in August 2022, an investment exceeding
\n$100 billion was announced for US battery and electric vehicle
\nmanufacturing initiatives. Of particular concern are projects which
\nhave already started construction. S&P Global Mobility
\nestimates that in 2022, the US will have seven operational battery
\nplants, with an annual capacity of 75-gigawatt hours (GWh); after
\nthe IRA, we see as many as 24 battery plants currently planned or
\nunder construction, which could increase capacity to 732 GWh. We
\nalso expect that this investment could exceed medium-term
\ndemand.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0124\/election1.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nwill need to continue to support funding for projects bringing
\ninvestments and jobs to their states and districts. While on the
\nnational stage, Republicans may object to any subsidy that conjures
\nimagery of the Green New Deal, but lawmakers in states already
\nbenefitting will need to protect those projects. This situation
\ncould create more tension than already exists between federal and
\nstate authority on a number of issues.<\/p>\n
\nimpact on for OEMs, suppliers and battery companies in terms of
\nproduct and investment strategy. Without national incentives for
\nlocal investment,
\nless expensive supply sources<\/a> for key materials outside of the
\nregion may become more attractive. The credits often offset the
\nhigher costs of local sourcing; without them, an already
\nunprofitable situation can become more of a challenge.<\/p>\n
\ncurrently known investment plans to create more battery capacity
\nthan demand projections expect would be needed. We are also seeing
\nsome automakers and suppliers delay planned EV and battery
\nmanufacturing capacity plans for 2024. However, that is more
\nrelated to changing expectations for demand rather than increased
\nrisk for the IRA subsidies to change. With planned investment
\nlikely to be higher than demand, both sides of the party aisle have
\npointed arguments for and against maintaining the credits.<\/p>\n
\ncurrent emissions and fuel economy regulation proposals are
\nfinalized and the IRA law remains in place and unchallenged.
\nHowever, if the situation does change, we see potential for
\nautomaker reactions in several general categories:<\/p>\n\n
\nbut may adjust timing and sourcing; and,<\/li>\n
\nchange the picture; lowering compliance requirements can enable
\nautomakers and the market to move more slowly to ZEVs but puts
\nmedium-term investment plans into question. In the longer term,
\ncontinued progress to a ZEV future is supported by global policies
\nand regulations.<\/p>\n
\ncontinue that path. This will include Tesla, Rivian, Fisker, and
\nLucid.<\/p>\n
\nbeginning in 2025 or 2026 when its Mexico plant is finally
\nconstructed and online. Tesla has slowed development of its Mexico
\nplant because of concerns CEO Elon Musk has over the economy and
\ninterest rates, rather than potential changes in the political
\nlandscape. Rivian is committed to a Georgia plant under
\nconstruction. Lucid's production capacity expansion plans for the
\nUS are likely to be more affected by real demand for the new
\nGravity SUV. If consumer acceptance trails company expectations,
\nexpansion could slow regardless of tax incentives. Meanwhile,
\nFisker aims for contract manufacturing and is therefore in less
\ncontrol over its supply chain.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0124\/election2.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nMobility<\/em><\/p>\n
\nforces<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n
\naccept ICE, EV or PHEV solutions, and potentially fuel-cell EV
\nsolutions. Mercedes-Benz is in this camp as well, with public
\nstatements that it will increasingly move to BEV, but maintain ICE
\nvehicle production so long as consumers demand it.<\/p>\n
\n2025, to date it has been offering EV counterparts to most of its
\nproduct lineup – including expectations it will launch the X2 and
\niX2 in March 2024 as well as the latest Mini Cooper seeing ICE and
\nEV versions.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0124\/election3.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nMobility<\/em><\/p>\n
\nthe US significantly, aside from PHEV versions of Chrysler Pacifica
\nand several Jeep products. However, in Europe, it is much more
\naggressive with its BEV efforts. Stellantis' electrification
\nprofile in North America is expected to change in late 2024 and
\n2025. In early January, the company confirmed it plans to introduce
\nseven EVs for North America in 2024, including Jeep Recon and
\nWrangler S, Ram 1500 REV, Dodge Charger Daytona, and Fiat 500e.
\nStellantis is also expected to expand the use of its range-extender
\nsolution, which comes first in early 2025 in the Ramcharger; in
\nthat vehicle, a V6 engine generates power for an electric battery
\nbut has no connection to the drive wheels. Although Alfa Romeo is
\nexpected to blend PHEV and EV offerings, the Maserati brand is
\npoised to go all-electric first.<\/p>\n
\ninternal combustion engine programs or
\nplace higher emphasis on hybrid and PHEV solutions<\/a> through the
\nrest of this decade. Expectations are for EV programs to continue
\nto be developed, however. By 2030 or so, the EV programs should be
\nin full swing, as the investments do need to be realized.<\/p>\n
\ncompanies make different sourcing decisions. According to some late
\n2023 reports, Mercedes-Benz may change sourcing for the EQS SUV
\nfrom the US to Germany, Though the EQS is too expensive to qualify
\nfor US consumer tax credits, it is unclear if the company had been
\neligible for the manufacturing credits under the IRA.<\/p>\n
\ncategory – albeit for more philosophical reasons — driving its
\nforward product plan than US regulatory conditions or incentives.
\nThough Toyota waited until 2022 to get aggressive with a BEV
\nfuture, the company maintains that reaching carbon neutrality is
\nthe goal, rather than electrification for its own sake. Toyota
\nsteadfastly maintains that the number of batteries it has deployed
\ninto hybrid and PHEV products has had a greater impact on reducing
\noverall fleet emissions than if those same batteries were deployed
\nin a much smaller number of EVs. The result is that Toyota has a
\npropulsion system formula that could enable the company to lean in
\nwhichever direction is required from the blend of customer and
\nregulatory forces, including the availability of subsidies in any
\ngiven region.<\/p>\n
\nchanges<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0124\/election4.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nGlobal Mobility<\/em><\/p>\n
\ncould cause this group of OEMs to change timing for their
\ntransition from ICE to BEV, we expect they will largely stick to
\ntheir plans to move to all EV or ZEV by the about the middle or end
\nof the next decade. Automakers in this category include GM,
\nVolkswagen, and Hyundai Motor Group (including Hyundai, Kia and
\nGenesis brands in the US).<\/p>\n
\nand vehicle offerings throughout a murky situation include Hyundai
\nMotor Group, and to a lesser extent, Ford Motor Company.<\/p>\n
\ngrow those offerings, but most of the existing Hyundai and Kia
\nproducts currently offer ICE, hybrid and PHEV solutions, with some
\nalso offering BEV on the same platform. If there is a loosening of
\nregulations, Hyundai Motor Group has hybrids and PHEV solutions
\navailable. Presumably, they could extend and make moderate
\nimprovements to keep the products fresh if regulations and
\nconsumer demand make that the more profitable path<\/a> to the end
\nof the decade.<\/p>\n
\nvehicle programs if they need to. Ford's plans to offer fewer
\nmodels on its EV platforms and focus on higher volume for a more
\nlimited range of products could be a benefit here as well, as
\ndelaying planned capacity means delaying fewer vehicle
\nprograms.<\/p>\n
\neliminating some products, ideally shifting that capacity to other
\nvehicles and holding down build complexity. A challenge for GM in
\nthis case may be that it has more brands to feed than Ford.<\/p>\n
\nelectrification and BEVs, though in the early part of this decade,
\nnone was moving quickly to address the need for the US market.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/cdn.ihsmarkit.com\/www\/images\/0124\/election5.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\nMobility<\/em><\/p>\n
\n2023 said their plan to develop US electrified offerings will land
\nat just the right time. Nissan has confirmed US EV production for
\n2025 and is also working to develop the e-Power range extender
\nsolution for US consumer demands.<\/p>\n
\nrecent CEO remarks suggest the automaker is looking to keep this
\ndevelopment in-house and has set an aggressive target for the
\n2026-27 timeframe. Mazda's North American BEV production investment
\nis not final, but as a mainstream brand, its vehicles may be more
\nsensitive to pricing; and being ineligible for the consumer tax
\ncredit could pose a higher risk.<\/p>\n
\nAcura brands in the US in 2024 by leveraging its work with GM. But
\nits plan to build an affordable EV platform with General Motors was
\ncanceled in 2023. Honda's BEV development for the US will now be
\ninternal. As the product plans have changed, Honda is also
\nincreasing its reliance on hybrid offerings in the US, aiming to
\nsee half of its Accord, Civic, and CR-V sales be hybrid models.<\/p>\n
\ncontrol – has the potential to create challenges to the regulatory
\nstructure as well as both the BIL and IRA.<\/p>\n
\nhaving set a soft target of seeing 50% of US light vehicle sales
\nbeing zero emissions in 2030. This target is also part of Biden
\nhaving the US re-join the Paris Climate Accord and targeting
\nbroader, aggressive carbon neutrality targets.<\/p>\n
\nto the EV-friendly laws may be impossible without Republican
\ncontrol of both the House and the Senate; the IRA and BIL are
\nsimply too large to change from the present course.<\/p>\n
\nmanufacturing investments are being made and where construction is
\nalready underway are swing states that are vitally important to the
\nresult of the Presidential race, with Georgia, Michigan and the
\nCarolinas leading the way. However, there has also been pushback
\nfrom residents in both Georgia and Michigan to these manufacturing
\ninvestments, showing that the divide over the path to a ZEV future
\nis playing out on the local as well as national level.<\/p>\n
\nproviding for federal funding of green-manufacturing development
\nunder the guise of fiscal discipline, investment commitments could
\nbe scaled back or delayed. The potential for ensuing lost
\nmanufacturing investment could see the Democratic party positioning
\nitself as the party supporting business and workers regarding the
\ncountry's automotive industry.<\/p>\n
\nchanging the law will require Congressional input and votes. With a
\npotentially split or opposition Congress, the elected president
\ncould have a more difficult time delivering on the changes promised
\non the campaign trail. For industry, these factors create
\nuncertainty, which is the most disruptive of elements. With
\nbillions of dollars and the future of these companies at stake, the
\nindustry has time and again said that certainty related to
\nregulations and policy is what they need most in executing a
\nforward path.<\/p>\n
\nMobility presents potential top-line scenarios to our baseline EV
\nadoption forecast for the US.
\nToday's baseline forecast<\/a> includes possibility for US EV market
\nshare to be closer to 45% in 2030 and assumes that OEMs succeed in
\nlobbying efforts to move away from EPA emissions aspirations and
\nlean heavier on the latest NHTSA proposal, which may enable use of
\nmore alternative powertrains.<\/p>\n
\nchanges to the IRA or BIL and incentives for manufacturers and
\nconsumers are reduced, we could expect to see the potential for EV
\nshare to be closer to 37% in 2030.<\/p>\n
\nunchanged, the law of the land would push electrification north of
\n50% in 2030.<\/p>\n
\nenvironment, with numerous interwoven and discrete variables.<\/p>\n
\nTO DISCUSS POTENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOMES WITH OUR ADVISORY
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